Market Roundup
• EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Apr): 49.1, 43.5 previous
•EU Business Climate (Apr): -0.28, -0.27 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Apr): 31.1, 20.8 previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Apr): 93.0, 95.2 forecast, 96.2 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Apr): -7.7, -7.2 forecast, -7.0 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Apr): 0.9, 3.5 forecast, 4.1 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Apr): -20.6, -20.6 forecast, -16.3 previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Apr): 2.9%, 3.0% forecast, 2.7% previous
•Germany HICP (MoM) (Apr): 0.5%, 0.8% forecast, 1.2% previous
•Germany HICP (YoY) (Apr): 2.9%, 3.1% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US Housing Starts (Feb): 1.356M, 1.398M previous
•US Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb): -3.0%, 7.2% previous
•US Building Permits (MoM) (Feb): 10.9%, -4.7% previous
•US Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar): 10.8%, 1.8% previous
•US Housing Starts (Mar): 1.502M, 1.380M forecast, 1.398M previous
•US Building Permits (Mar): 1.372M, 1.390M forecast, 1.386M previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar): 0.5%, 0.4% previous
•US Goods Trade Balance (Mar): -87.87B, -87.50B forecast, -83.50B previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar): 0.8%, 0.4% forecast, -1.2% previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•US Building Permits (MoM) (Mar): -10.8%, 10.9% forecast, -4.7% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Mar): 3.3%, 0.5% forecast, 1.6% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Mar): -0.3%, -1.2% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Mar): 1.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision: 2.25%, 2.25% forecast, 2.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.806M previous
•14:00 US Gasoline Inventories: -2.100M forecast, -4.570M previous
•14:00 US Gasoline Production: 0.315M previous
•14:00 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -2.200M forecast, -3.427M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited a closely watched Federal Reserve rate decision likely to be Chair Jerome Powell's last against a backdrop of an Iran war that shows little sign of imminent resolution. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold, leaving the focus on policymakers' assessment of the war's impact on the economy and on Powell's future. In geopolitics, efforts to end the Iran war were at an impasse. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Tehran because he wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset. Against the dollar, the euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1701. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1755(April 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1678(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1682(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped against the dollar as investors were caution ahead of a series of major central bank decisions, including the Bank of England, kept investor risk appetite in check. The Federal Reserve delivers its decision on interest rates later on Wednesday and is not expected to make any changes to U.S. monetary policy. It is also possibly Chair Jerome Powell's last meeting as head of the central bank before likely successor Kevin Warsh takes over. The BoE, which meets on Thursday, is not expected to deliver any change to interest rates, meaning traders will be looking closely at how policymakers voted to get a sense of how justified current market-based expectations for two rate hikes this year are. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3605(50%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3477(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3449(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Wednesday after data showed Australia’s inflation rose a little less than expected in the first quarter. Australia’s CPI rose 1.4% in Q1, the fastest since late 2023, while annual inflation climbed to 4.1% from 3.6%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Core inflation (trimmed mean) rose 0.8% in Q1, slightly below the 0.9% forecast, with the annual rate edging up to 3.5% from 3.4%, remaining above the RBA’s 2–3% target.Markets are now pricing a 75% probability of a May 5 RBA rate hike, with further tightening likely to push AUD/USD above the 0.7250–0.7285 resistance zone.Geopolitics remains a key driver, as the Iran stalemate persists, with reports suggesting a prolonged blockade could keep global tensions elevated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7222(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7280(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7094(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as yen weakened despite the Bank of Japan hinting after its policy meeting on Tuesday at a strong chance of a rate hike in coming months. The yen has lost 0.6% in value against the dollar and over 2% since the war started, partly due to Japan's exposure to imported energy inflation. The BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, but a rare 6–3 split - the widest since Ueda took office - fueled expectations of a possible rate hike as early as June.BOJ Gov Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to a gradual tightening path, indicating that interest rates could continue to rise in line with evolving economic, inflation, and financial condition. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.09(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.41(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.13(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.85(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Wednesday as markets struggled for direction ahead of earnings from major U.S. technology firms and the outcome of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.11 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil rose nearly 4% on Wednesday, with Brent hitting a one-month high, after reports the U.S. will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, prolonging Middle East supply disruptions..
Brent crude futures for June rose $4.24, or 3.81%, to $115.50 a barrel by 1255 GMT, climbing for an eighth day to the highest level since March 31. The June contract expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was up 3.86% at $108.43.
Gold fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as Middle East-driven inflation concerns clouded the policy outlook, with focus also on the Fed’s rate decision later in the day.
Spot gold was down 1.1% at $4,543.57 per ounce, as of 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), a one-month low. U.S. gold futures fell 1.1% to $4,555.70.
