FX Hedging Strategy Series

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: GBP/CAD gut check with bears as major downtrend appears still fragile despite sharp spikes – Stay short in mid-month futures and tunnel spreads

Jan 18, 2017 07:22 am UTC| Technicals

The bearish pressure is observed in this pair again, despite vigorous upswings bulls restrained at resistance, consequently, bearish swings resume (refer daily chart). Any break below 7DMA 1.5964 to bring in more bearish...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Gold keeps glittering despite ETF liquidation and hawkish rate projection, IV skews indicate upside risks – Smart hedge via diagonal straps

Jan 17, 2017 07:58 am UTC| Research & Analysis

Stay long Feb17 CME gold Following the December Fed hike, macro markets broadly reacted meaningfully to the more hawkish rate projection, with gold specifically selling off to $1,213/oz. This price level for gold made us...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Can CNB exit EUR/CZK floor – Safeguard FX exposures via forwards contracts

Jan 16, 2017 13:40 pm UTC| Central Banks

The domestic macro pressures are increasing pressure on the CNB to exit the EURCZK floor. In our view, upside inflation surprises and stronger growth momentum warrant a shift towards tighter monetary policy, which should...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Is it mispricing in EUR/USD/JPY IV skews

Jan 16, 2017 11:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The EUR/JPY volatility surface is offering very attractive opportunities because the skew on the 6m and 1y is currently excessive (refer 4th graph). Where IV skews seem to be mispricing, which is why implied vols of this...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: What after FED hikes and hints of hawkish tones - Treasury yields, ETF liquidation, and Gold trade perspectives

Jan 11, 2017 06:04 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

This write up emphasizes the upholding longs in Feb17 CME gold futures following the December Fed hike, macro markets broadly reacted meaningfully to the more hawkish rate projection, with gold specifically selling off to...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Turkish inflation goes against CBRT projections yet again, lira still seems vulnerable – Try long in USD/TRY via option trades

Jan 10, 2017 12:36 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks

The 1.64% MoM increase in CPI was far above the 0.9% market consensus. Strong FX pass-through and some idiosyncratic factors, including a jump in egg prices, led to a much sharper-than-expected increase in headline CPI...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Yen gains capped on JGB yields as USD/JPY carries highest beta to UST – Stay short in AUD/JPY on cyclical effects via one touch calendar spread

Jan 10, 2017 11:01 am UTC| Commentary

After all the uncertainty about Trumps future plans for the economy is still high at present so that some doubts about the Trumpflation story are justified. The markets have been squarely focussed since the election on...