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FxWirePro: Prefer USD/MXN gamma neutral calendar skews on carry-to-vols ratio and Banxico hikes

Apr 07, 2017 09:43 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Banxico hiked 25bp; we see limited MXN gains but prefer calendar skews at the current juncture. Banxico has hiked its policy rate 25bp to 6.5% and signaled a shift in gears towards a slower pace of tightening...

Fitch: Chinese Banks' Profitability Is Likely to Decline Further

Apr 07, 2017 09:28 am UTC| Research & Analysis

Chinese banks will struggle to avoid further declines in profitability this year if tight market liquidity aimed at slowing further build-up in leverage remains in effect, as it is likely to increase funding costs, Fitch...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Antipodeans bank upon central banks, Aussie dollar edgy on commodity markets – 3-way straddles vs OTM call for optimal hedging

Apr 07, 2017 06:54 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis

The Antipodean pair now wants to retest the 1.0800 area, which looks vulnerable to giving way to 1.0750. We expect NZD to fall through this year, reaching 0.63 at year-end. The support to growth from migration will...

FxWirePro: Bullish SEK against EUR covered put and NZD vanilla put

Apr 06, 2017 13:13 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

SEK has been one of the underperformers in G10 this week, weakening in sympathy with EUR. There isnt an immediately identifiable catalyst for the underperformance, although wage negotiations yielded an outcome that was...

FxWirePro: USD/CAD 2m2w IV skews and risk reversals conducive for both holders and writers in diagonal call ratio back spreads

Apr 06, 2017 12:51 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

OTC outlook: Please be noted that it seems to be ideal time for the writers of overpriced call options as you could observe the negative shift in risk reversal flashes in 1m tenors, whereas we see neutral changes to the...

FxWirePro: European recovery on stage via FX options ahead of French polls

Apr 06, 2017 10:31 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The European recovery theme has become increasingly mainstream in recent weeks as continued Euro-area growth out-performance intersects with moderating political risks. Last week, we opened an outright long EUR/USD...

FxWirePro: Cheapness of long-dated CHF vol lures favoring long vega in USD/CHF calls and delta hedges

Apr 06, 2017 10:17 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

One sticking point is that 5Y USD/CHF forwards are realizing 1.5-1.8 pts. below 5Y ATMs. This is not a direct impediment to vol buying since gamma contribution to long-expiry option P/Ls is miniscule, but the implied ...

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Economy

Beyond the spin, beyond the handouts, here’s how to get a handle on what’s really happening on budget night

Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, TV or news websites on budget night. The quickest way to find out what...

Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility

Ivan Vladislavić is Johannesburgs literary linkman. He tells us, in the first pages of his new book, The Near North, that before cities were lit, first by gaslight and later electricity, people of means paid torchbearers...

Why is the London Stock Exchange losing out to the US

London Stock Exchange (LSE), which can trace its heritage to the coffee houses of the 17th century, is failing. The volume of shares traded is sharply declining, and some UK companies are swiftly moving to the US...

Why Germany ditched nuclear before coal – and why it won’t go back

One year ago, Germany took its last three nuclear power stations offline. When it comes to energy, few events have baffled outsiders more. In the face of climate change, calls to expedite the transition away from fossil...

What if the Reserve Bank itself has been feeding inflation? An economist explains

Heres something for the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia to ponder as it meets next month to set interest rates. It has pushed up rates on 13 occasions since it began its attempt to restrain inflation in May...

Politics

Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board

To say that the Labour party is flying high in the polls is something of an understatement. But despite its consistent lead against the Tories, the opposition finds itself in a rather odd position: on the cusp of power but...

History for sale: what does South Africa’s struggle heritage mean after 30 years of democracy?

One of my favourite statues is the one of Nelson Mandela at the Sandton City shopping centre in Johannesburg. Larger than life, its oversized bronze shoes shimmer in the evening light, polished by the hands of many...

Sudan: civil war stretches into a second year with no end in sight

In the early hours of April 15 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) a Sudanese paramilitary force attacked the military airstrip in the town of Merowe and deployed troops across strategic locations in Sudans capital,...

Joe Biden Proposes Record 44.6% Capital Gains Tax in Latest Budget Plan That May Favor Cryptocurrencies

President Joe Biden has proposed raising the capital gains tax to an unprecedented 44.6% in a bold fiscal move, targeting the wealthiest Americans. This hike is part of his 2025 budget proposal to reduce income...

Turkey’s suppression of the Kurdish political movement continues to fuel a deadly armed conflict

The world has 91 democracies and 88 autocracies. Yet 71% of the worlds population (some 5.7 billion people) are living under autocratic rule, a big jump from 48% ten years ago. This trend towards authoritarianism can...

Science

A Nasa rover has reached a promising place to search for fossilised life on Mars

While we go about our daily lives on Earth, a nuclear-powered robot the size of a small car is trundling around Mars looking for fossils. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, Nasas Perseverance rover is explicitly intended to...

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Peter Higgs was one of the greats of particle physics. He transformed what we know about the building blocks of the universe

Peter Higgs, who gave his name to the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson, has died aged 94. He was always a modest man, especially when considering that he was one of the greats of particle physics the area of...

Could a telescope ever see the beginning of time? An astronomer explains

The James Webb Space Telescope, or JWST for short, is one of the most advanced telescopes ever built. Planning for JWST began over 25 years ago, and construction efforts spanned over a decade. It was launched into space on...

US media coverage of new science less likely to mention researchers with African and East Asian names

When one Chinese national recently petitioned the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to become a permanent resident, he thought his chances were pretty good. As an accomplished biologist, he figured that news...

Technology

Huawei Leaks: Next-Gen Kirin CPU to Rival Apple's M3 Processor

Huaweis chip development team is rumored to be working on a next-generation Kirin CPU that could give Apples M3 a run for its money. The chip is expected to leverage the innovative Taishan V130 architecture, focusing on...

SHIB Burn Rate Soars 88% Following Major Shibarium Upgrade Announcement

Following a crucial upgrade announcement for Shibarium, Shibburn reports a dramatic 88.32% increase in the SHIB burn rate, removing millions from circulation and significantly boosting Shiba Inu coin holders. SHIB...

Solana Co-Founder Clashes with Vitalik Buterin, Champions Meme Coin Culture

In a bold social media move, Solanas co-founder Raj Gokal defended meme coins and subtly critiqued Ethereums Vitalik Buterin, stirring controversy in the crypto community. Solanas Gokal Defends Meme Coins, Warns...

Tesla Model 3 Performance Price Surges Days After Debut, Cybertruck Powershare Costs Skyrocket

Just days after Tesla released its Model 3 Performance, the company increased its price by $1,000. Meanwhile, a Tesla Cybertruck owner faces a staggering $30,000 quote for a Powershare installation, which would enable his...

Apple Partners with OpenAI for On-Device AI in iOS 18, Enhancing Privacy

Apple Inc. has reignited discussions with OpenAI to integrate advanced AI features into iOS 18, utilizing large language models entirely on-device. According to a Bloomberg report, this move promises to significantly...