MERS may be more serious for Korea than SARS, swine flu or the Sewol ferry disaster
Jun 11, 2015 10:25 am UTC| Commentary
The outbreak of MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) has suddenly become a key downside risk to the near-term outlook for the Korean economy. The first case of MERS in Korea was reported on 20 May. As of 11 June, there...
China's real activity data remain soft, with FAI lagging behind
Jun 11, 2015 10:14 am UTC| Commentary
Chinas May real activity data remained soft in general, in line with market expectations. Industrial production (IP) growth edged up to 6.1% y/y from 5.9% (consensus: 6.0%) a further improvement from 5.6% in March, but is...
US equity positioning neutral: HFs o/w and MFs u/w
Jun 11, 2015 09:51 am UTC| Commentary
The composite equity positioning measure shows that fund exposure to US equities has risen since early May and is back at average levels. Macro HF and long-short equity HF positioning is notably above average, while mutual...
USDA revises forecast for wheat production in the US, Russia and Ukraine upwards
Jun 11, 2015 09:37 am UTC| Commentary
The estimates of global wheat production and demand in 2015/16 (WASDE report) published yesterday by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) came as something of a surprise. The estimate of global wheat production was...
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust fell to the lowest level since the Lehman collapse
Jun 11, 2015 09:31 am UTC| Commentary
Gold increased for a time to a weekly high of over $1,190 per troy ounce on the back of a weaker US dollar, though it is currently trading below this level again. The debt crisis in Greece also appears to be lending...
Strong decline of US crude oil and gasoline stocks
Jun 11, 2015 09:23 am UTC| Commentary
Oil prices are continuing the rally they began at the end of last week. Brent climbed to more than $66 per barrel yesterday, while WTI peaked at just shy of $62 per barrel. The price rise was boosted by sharp falls in...
Sharp inflation moderation and/or growth deterioration Chile's key downside risks
Jun 11, 2015 08:06 am UTC| Commentary
Two factors could alter the Chiles key downside risks. First, growth in H2 15 and the outlook for 2016 would have to worsen more seriously (less than 2% in H2). Second, inflation would have to decline faster (less than...