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Sharp inflation moderation and/or growth deterioration Chile's key downside risks

Two factors could alter the Chile's key downside risks.

  • First, growth in H2 15 and the outlook for 2016 would have to worsen more seriously (less than 2% in H2). 

  • Second, inflation would have to decline faster (less than 3% in H2 15 and H1 16) than expected at the moment. 
Both these scenarios have some probability of materialising and the external environment could change the direction of these risks, depending on the timing and extent of Fed tightening, says Societe Generale.

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