US Fed's Beige Book signals continuous expansion of economic activity

Sep 03, 2015 03:41 am UTC| Commentary

All twelve Fed Districts expanded over the July to mid-August period, according to the latest Beige Book. Six Districts reported a moderate pace of growth, five reported modest growth, while the Cleveland District noted...

COPOM to continue being on hold for a 'prolonged' period

Sep 03, 2015 03:30 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Copom continues to believe that keeping the Selic rate at this level (14.25%) for a sufficiently prolonged period is necessary to converge inflation to the mid-point of the target. The recent developments in China...

Risk is decoupled from US fundamentals

Sep 03, 2015 03:26 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The recent repricing of risk appears to be decoupled from US fundamentals. Admittedly, macro profits used in this analysis are derived from domestic production, i.e. do not include foreign profits and therefore exclude the...

US profit outlook – margin squeeze to intensify in mid 2016

Sep 03, 2015 03:22 am UTC| Commentary

Although US wage pressures are expected to intensify in the second half of the year, the impact on margins should be offset by strong consumer demand (i.e. good revenue growth) and a pickup in productivity gains. What...

US still in mid-cycle mode

Sep 03, 2015 03:20 am UTC| Commentary

With profit margins still hovering near cyclical highs, it is fair to say that the US economy is still in a middle phase of the business cycle. The late-cycle dynamic is generally characterized by acceleration in wage...

Denmark likely to see a 15bp rate hike in 3M and 10bp in 6M

Sep 03, 2015 03:12 am UTC| Commentary

The recent market turmoil and subsequent beginning of speculation about further monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) in the near term provides a good argument for DN to continue using the more flexible...

Denmarks Nationalbank (DN) purchased DKK48bn to cap EUR/DKK upside in August

Sep 03, 2015 03:10 am UTC| Commentary

DN has just published Augusts FX reserve and balance sheet. In August, the FX reserve declined to DKK536 from DKK583bn in July. DKK48bn of the fall was due to DN purchasing DKK in FX intervention. DN has intervened in the...