BoE to see inflation stabilise before hiking

Sep 04, 2015 06:00 am UTC| Commentary

In general, five pre-conditions are for the BoE to increase interest rates as illustrated in the table to the right: (1) A return to normal unemployment at or below the BoEs NAIRU estimate, (2) An increase in wages...

UK unemployment rate likely to fall further

Sep 04, 2015 05:54 am UTC| Commentary

The improvement in UK labour market eased off in Q2. Employment declined for the first time since Q1 2013 and the unemployment rate in Q2 rose to 5.6% from 5.5% in Q1. This is not expected to be the beginning of a new...

UK growth to be driven by domestic demand

Sep 04, 2015 05:50 am UTC| Commentary

The economic upturn in the UK is on track and the UK is expected to expand slightly above trend in the coming quarters. Growth is expected to be driven mainly by domestic demand and in particular by private consumption as...

Mexican consumer confidence is expected to tick up in August

Sep 04, 2015 05:41 am UTC| Commentary

Consumer confidence in Mexico, having stalled over the past two to three quarters, saw a sudden surge in June, reaching its highest level since August 2013. The sharp jump was quite a surprise, materialising in the wake of...

Remaining portions of US BLS employment situation report to be mixed

Sep 04, 2015 05:40 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The remaining portions of the BLS employment situation report are expected to be mixed. Reflecting previously discussed calendar effects associated with the timing of the establishment survey, average hourly earnings...

US labour markets probably warmed up with temperatures in August

Sep 04, 2015 05:37 am UTC| Commentary

Government statisticians are expected to report that US hiring conditions showed some further improvement in August. 250K net new positions were created, a touch above the 235K average posted over the May-July span....

Decline expected in Germany's factory orders in July

Sep 04, 2015 05:31 am UTC| Commentary

Following the stronger than expected rise in June (2% mom), we expect factory orders to decline by 0.6% mom in July. Domestic orders should rise by around 1%, having disappointed since March. Weak construction activity...