Emerging Market Crisis Series

Mexico inflation to snap back in 2016

Dec 22, 2015 02:16 am UTC| Commentary

As we move into next year it is important to identify which of the factors that kept inflation low this year will persist and which are likely to have been short-lived. There are enough signals to think inflation will snap...

Benign trade deficit masks manufacturing export weakness in India

Dec 22, 2015 00:59 am UTC| Commentary

The trade deficit remained expectedly benign in November, printing at US$9.8bn, the same level as in October, and a shade below expectations. The anticipated rise in gold imports played out, with gold and silver imports...

Fiscal policy focus moving from budgetary spending to off-budget activity in South Korea

Dec 22, 2015 00:41 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The government released a report detailing its 2016 policy direction, which was generally in line with the view that the government will rely more on off-budget activity to support the economy, with fiscal stimulus via...

New Zealand finishes the fiscal journey

Dec 22, 2015 00:25 am UTC| Commentary

The New Zealand Treasury staff is expected to revise down their economic assumptions materially in this weeks Half Year Update, given that the forecasts in May were so upbeat, and with growth having clearly slipped a gear...

Currency War Series

BoJ tweaks policy as growth firms

Dec 21, 2015 23:54 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The recent data flow from Japan on balance has been encouraging. Reports indicate that business expansion has strengthened and broadened, spanning from the labor market to capex. This weeks BoJ Tankan reinforced this...

US manufacturing still struggling

Dec 21, 2015 23:39 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The November IP report confirmed that manufacturing continues to underperform the overall economy. Total manufacturing output was flat in November and non-auto output increased 0.1% samr. This leaves total manufacturing up...

Currency War Series

BoE to follow Fed but not in a hurry

Dec 21, 2015 23:18 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of England is expected to follow the Fed in coming months, launching a rate cycle before midyear. The UK labor market continued to strengthen this week, with a strong gain in jobs and another drop in the...