Weekly US rates review

Sep 10, 2015 23:51 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

US yields sold off modestly over the week, with 10y yields rising to 2.23%, as risk assets stabilized amid little economic data. Fedspeak was modestly dovish, with San Francisco Fed President Williams noting that his...

RBI highly likely to cut rates

Sep 10, 2015 23:32 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to ease during the upcoming policy meeting on 29 September. 1y NDOIS is currently pricing in about 75bp of cut in the next 1y. One more cut is expected to materialize early next...

BoK to remain on hold for the rest of the year

Sep 10, 2015 23:16 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

BoK is expected to remain on hold for the rest of the year. It is believed that the market might have gone ahead of itself in expecting rate cuts for the following reasons: Won is much weaker now against the USD and...

Asian central banks to issue policy updates just before the Fed

Sep 10, 2015 22:26 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

In addition to potential Fed effects, China macro risk will be the dominant influence upon Asian markets with potential spillover to the global market tone. Mondays updates for retail sales and industrial production will...

EUR close to equilibrium but mind the ECB

Sep 10, 2015 21:33 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Surprisingly, EUR is close to its equilibrium level on a trade weighted basis, and EUR/USD is also close to fair value of 1.16. Indeed the equilibrium estimate for EUR/USD at 1.16 is below the long-term average level of...

Hike or no hike, do not expect a dovish FOMC

Sep 10, 2015 20:59 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The long-awaited September FOMC meeting is finally upon us. The Fed is expected deliver a rate hike but package it in a dovish message. The dots are likely to show only one rate increase this year, signalling that the...

Copom meeting minutes: Better forecasts, deteriorating balance of risks

Sep 10, 2015 16:52 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Copom meeting minutes released earlier today show that the 2016 inflation forecast was reduced. That happened in the reference scenario, in which the exchange rate was kept flat at (from 3.25 previously) and the Selic...