BoE's first rate hike likely in H1 16

Nov 03, 2015 06:22 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

After a strong start to the year, the U.K. economy is advancing at a moderately less buoyant pace, with real GDP growth decelerating to 0.5% q/q in the third quarter, down from a 0.7% advance in the prior quarter. U.K....

ECB QE programme's length extension unlikely to be a big surprise to the markets

Nov 03, 2015 05:47 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Given the latest decline in Euro areas inflation and as the programme is designed to run until there is a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. An extension of QE for more than six months would likely be somewhat...

Flexibility under QE programme has many dimensions

Nov 03, 2015 05:13 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Draghi and a number of other ECB members have repeatedly argued for flexibility in the QE programme in terms of its size, composition and duration. Considering the current design of the QE programme, monetary policy easing...

ECB’s menu of instruments can be used to surprise markets

Nov 03, 2015 05:10 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The stance at the ECB meeting in October was surprisingly dovish, particularly as Draghi opened the door for further deposit rate cuts. Previously the message had been that the ECB had reached the lower bound on the...

The ebb and flow of Fed hike expectations

Nov 03, 2015 02:44 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Over the past two weeks, market expectations of Fed normalization have rebounded somewhat. Much of this has got to do with the market interpreting the October FOMC outcome to be more hawkish than anticipated. Sensitivity...

Lower interest rates may not necessarily boost loan growth in Indonesia

Nov 03, 2015 02:27 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

CPI inflation eased to 6.3% (YoY) in October and may fall further towards the year-end, given the high base effects from 4Q14. Note that monthly inflation is negative for the second consecutive month. Bank Indonesia (BI)...

AUD vigilant against RBA’s stance turning dovish

Nov 03, 2015 02:12 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Australian dollar (AUD) will be paying close attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting today. With CPI below the official inflation target of 2-3% for the fourth straight quarter in 3Q15, the central...