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South Africa's SARB's vigilance on repo rate ensures inflation contained over long term

SARB monetary policy indicates that consumer inflation is not expected to make any sustainable changes to the reserve board's 3-6% target band, real interest rates will likely climb up to 2.0%.

The BER will publish its latest survey on inflation expectations 10 December and the majority of Break-even yields widened, the investors could be confident that SARB's previously mentioned vigilance would ensure that inflation remains well contained over long term.

"We expect CPI inflation to average 5.6% in 2016 and 5.9% in 2017, while according to the latest BER survey, 1-year inflation expectations are running at 6.1% while 2-year expectations are at 5.9%", says Barclays in a research note. 

Indeed, not only did the curve bear flatten in the wake of the November MPC meeting, there has not been robust demand for linker scrip at the weekly auctions.

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