Currency War Series

Will BoJ’s current asset purchase program succeed in achieving price stability target?

Jan 07, 2016 16:37 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Revised data showed that Japans economy has avoided another technical recession; real GDP grew by 0.3% q/q (+1.7% y/y) in Q3, following a 0.1% q/q contraction (+0.7% y/y) in the April-June period. However, economic...

Currency War Series

Poloz reiterates that Bank of Canada will not follow the Fed higher

Jan 07, 2016 16:27 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz spoke in Ottawa this morning on the divergence between U.S. monetary policy and that in the rest of the world, including Canada. The governor emphasized that the divergence in...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

CBRT’s move towards policy simplification pivotal for TRY in 2016

Jan 07, 2016 15:34 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Underperformance of the lira continued through 2015, triggered by the lack of response by the CBRT. TRY outlook in 2016 will largely depend on the expected monetary policy simplification and normalisation of interest...

Currency War Series

Are currency wars likely to be the new norm in 2016?

Jan 07, 2016 14:35 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

2016 view is not significantly different from that in 2015 - mainly because many of the variables havent changed very much. Major central banks around the globe will do very little to alter their current paths. The BoE...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Minutes suggests FED worries on weak inflation

Jan 07, 2016 11:10 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hikes interest rates by 25 basis points for first time since 2006 in last policy meeting in December, but minutes from that meeting shows policy makers remain greatly concerned on...

China Crisis Series

China’s FX reserve shrank by record in December and in 2015

Jan 07, 2016 10:29 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

China suffered biggest monthly drop in foreign exchange reserve in December, leading to largest annual drop ever. In December, Chinas FX reserve dropped by -$107.9 billion, bringing total annual shrinkage to $512.66...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

South Africa's SARB is a robust anchor but may face more acute challenges

Jan 07, 2016 09:33 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The biggest hurdle in front of SARB is lower forex reserve which is just over USD40bn only and ZAR weakness. The weakening of the National Treasury leaves the SARB to lower its interest rates. In general Central...