What's happening in Spain after the general election (and what it means for the presidency of the Council of the EU)

Spaniards voted in a general election on 23 July. The election was called early. Pedro Sánchez, the current acting prime minister, brought it forward after the Socialist Party (PSOE) polled poorly in municipal and regional elections on 28 May, and the prospect of an internal rebellion within the party loomed.

The polls, up to 22 July, indicated that the winner of the general election would be the right-wing bloc: the People’s Party (PP) would be able to form a government with Vox (populist far right-wing party), with which it has already governed in coalition in regions and municipalities.

At the same time, the polls saw the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Sumar (a grand coalition of left-wing parties) losing votes.

Seat mathematics

Pending the results of voters abroad, which may lead to changes in some constituencies but would not substantially alter the overall situation, this predicted triumph has not materialised.

In the Spanish parliamentary system the election of the prime minister takes place in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. The absolute majority is therefore reached at 176 seats.

The PP, the winner of the elections, has won 136 seats and Vox 33, totalling 169 between them. To this could be added two more seats from regionalist parties, reaching a maximum of 171 seats.

The coalition of the left could count on the PSOE, which won 122, and Sumar 31. That is, 153. All the minority left-wing or pro-independence Basque or Catalan parties that are likely to support the PSOE (and which already did so, in one way or another, in the previous government) add another 19 seats, which would make a total of 172 in that bloc. In other words, the PSOE and its partners are a little closer to forming a government than the PP.

The fact that the PP can agree with Vox, with an increasingly conservative and illiberal discourse, disqualifies it from agreeing with other old partners. For example, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), of former Christian Democrats, which has another five seats, has flatly refused to sit down at the negotiating table with Vox.

The seven seats that have not yet been counted would be those belonging to the Catalan pro-independence party Junts per Catalunya, the party of Carles Puigdemont, who remains in exile in Belgium more than six years on from arranging an illegal referendum.

What happened?

To begin with, the question in the minds of the leaders and voters of the PP and Vox, which performed worse than expected, is what went wrong? The private polls contracted by the media were predicting a right-wing government. Only the public polls of the CIS (Sociological National Research Agency) showed the PSOE as the winner.

The problem has been expectation vs reality. The results of the regional elections were projected as if they could be the results of the national elections, without taking into account possible changes, for structural and circumstantial reasons.

An important structural element is the will consolidated in the 1978 Spanish Constitution for all regions to be represented in Congress. Electoral legislation establishes that the 52 constituencies have a minimum of two deputies each. The complicated outcome of the elections stems, in large part, from this territorial representation.

Moreover, when extrapolating the results of 28 May, when the right wing triumphed, several regions had not voted, because they do not elect representatives at the same time as the rest of the country. The results were therefore skewed by the absence of votes from the Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalusia, among others. In the case of the general election, the consequence has been a left-wing vote or one that has added seats to the left-wing option.

But regional votes pose a challenge for possible left-wing coalition negotiations. In the Basque Country it would mean counting on the support of EH Bildu (still controversial for being the “political arm” of the former terrorist group ETA). And in Catalonia, the nationalist parties Junts per Catalunya and ERC would have to be included. Both, despite declining in support compared to 2019, are now decisive. It should be borne in mind that Junts, in exchange for an agreement, is asking for a referendum on independence for Catalonia, something that the PSOE flatly rejects.

The electorate also appears to have been unclear about what the limits of a PP pact with Vox would be. It remains to be seen whether this could have been a factor in the abstention of PP voters and the alienation of the party’s core voters.

What happens now?

King Felipe VI must call the party most likely to form a government, i.e. the one with the most support in Congress. If its candidate gets enough support in a first vote (absolute majority), the king will name a prime minister. If not, 48 hours later another vote will be held in which a simple majority will be sought.

If, after two months, no candidate obtains sufficient support, the king will be informed and new elections will be called, which would take place at the end of the year.

The current election result produced a distortion in this process, as the party with the most votes is not the one with enough support to form a government. Currently, PP is asking PSOE to reach an agreement with it and allow Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of PP, to become prime minister. This is not likely to happen.

The EU Council presidency

All this chaos has repercussions at a European level.

From 1 July until 31 December, Spain holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union.

The incumbent government, on behalf of the country, is responsible for running the meetings related to this role. Political leadership is required to seek consensus, and develop international relationships. Consensus-building in the context of the European Union entails calm work, which must be carried out by experts with legitimacy and political capacity.

Institutional representation corresponds to the presiding country, but the capacity to advance policies lies with those political leaders who seek agreements and advance ideas. It remains to be seen whether the incumbent, acting government has the capacity to exercise such leadership.

However, the proposals of the Spanish presidency have been decided beforehand in an agenda coordinated by the previous and two subsequent presidencies.

EU institutions are used to changes of government, as they are in an eternal electoral cycle in the member states. In this case, the novelty is the heavy responsibility that falls on the shoulders of the Spanish presidency during these months. Amid a possible deadlock in Spain and an end-of-year general election, Pedro Sanchez would lead Spain for almost the entirety of its presidency of the council.

Internationally, Spain is considered a politically stable country, with institutions and parties that respond to general interests and a position in the European context that, despite some complicated periods, responds to obligations. An election resulting in difficulties in forming a government should not ultimately alter that.