USD/ZAR likely to settle above 15.00 on a sustainable basis, says Commerzbank

The USD/ZAR currency pair is expected to settle above 15.00 on a sustainable basis, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.

The impression arises that the last hopes in the rand are slowly being dashed as to whether South Africa will be able to maintain its investment grade rating.

Otherwise ZAR would not be under so much pressure after Moody's lowered its 2020 growth forecast for the country from 1.0 percent to 0.7 percent, mainly as a result of domestic factors. That means that it is now crucial for the government to present credible plans as to how it intends to get the budget situation under control, the report added.

If it does not manage to do so next week when the new budget is being presented there is likely to be increased speculation as to whether Moody’s rating review in March will be negative for the country; with the expected consequences for the rand, Commerzbank further noted in the report.