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National Bank of Poland likely to hike rate by end of 2018 - Commerzbank

The National Bank of Poland kept its key interest rate on hold yesterday, as anticipated. The MPC hawks appeared to have given more mixed signals. For instance, Lucasz Hardt agreed that the possibility of a rate hike this year has diminished.

However, Governor Adam Glapinski made it clear that his own projection of flat rates is just until the end of this year, and that his recent statements regarding rates being flat even until mid-2019 was more an idea about what he might like under ideal circumstances, but not a formal signal, stated Commerzbank in a research report.

But the remarks made by several members implied a slight shift in favor of doves after previous month’s weak euro area price data. This dovishness led to a slight depreciation of the Polish zloty.

“For now, we maintain our call for one rate hike by the end of 2018, but the risk to this call is increasing”, added Commerzbank.

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