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Greenback pressurized deeper by Fed’s inability to convince markets, says Commerzbank

The FOMC statement seems to have been the trigger rather than the cause of this new leg of USD weakness. The dollar is struggling and the only reason EUR/USD had for not been trading in the mid-1.17ies earlier was that FOMC statements always contain a potential event risk. As soon as this obstacle had been removed the path for further USD weakness had been cleared.

However, the reasons for the current USD weakness really do rest with the Fed. It is really impressive how a central bank has managed to destroy itself in less than 10 years. The expectation of half a rate step (I.e. 50 percent probability of a step) until late 2017 and a further rate step in 2018 existed for some time; only that the dollar traded much stronger then. The difference is: the Fed is no longer the only central bank that is normalizing its interest rates (at least given market expectations about ECB, BoE etc. normalization).

"In this environment the Fed’s painfully slow hiking speed seems less attractive. And that is why the Fed’s inability to convince the market of further rate hikes now hurting the Greenback more than in the past," Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.

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