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China’s export growth likely accelerated sharply in April as overseas companies increased orders to secure manufacturing supplies amid concerns that the ongoing Iran conflict could drive global production and shipping costs even higher. According to a Reuters poll of economists, China’s exports are expected to rise 7.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, significantly higher than the 2.5% increase recorded in March. Official trade data is scheduled for release on Saturday.
The strong performance highlights how Chinese manufacturers continue to benefit from global demand despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices. Businesses worldwide have reportedly rushed to stockpile components and industrial goods from China to avoid potential disruptions linked to higher fuel and transportation costs caused by tensions in the Middle East.
Recent factory activity data also showed that new export orders in China climbed to their highest level in two years during April. At the same time, input costs for petroleum, chemicals, coal, and refined products remained elevated, reflecting growing inflationary pressure across global supply chains.
China’s economy maintained solid momentum during the first quarter of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5%, matching the upper end of Beijing’s annual target range. However, concerns remain over weak domestic consumption, rising unemployment, and slower retail sales growth compared to industrial production.
Imports are also forecast to remain strong, increasing 15.2% year-on-year in April, although lower than March’s 27.8% rise. Analysts point to South Korea’s exports to China, which surged 63% last month largely due to semiconductor demand, as a sign of robust Chinese industrial activity.
China’s trade surplus is expected to widen to $83.3 billion from March’s $51.13 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit China next week for talks with President Xi Jinping, with trade, agriculture, and aircraft parts likely on the agenda despite continuing tensions over Taiwan.
