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FxWirePro: What to expect from ECB ahead?

Today European Central Bank (ECB) is to provide further guidance in policy meet. Result to be announced at 12:45 GMT, followed by the press conference at 13:30 GMT. The meeting is to be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

Current policy measures–

  • Deposit facility rate at -0.40 percent
  • Refinancing rate 0.00 percent
  • Marginal lending facility rate at 0.25 percent
  • ECB had launched four new TLTROs.
  • Assets can be bought at yields below the deposit rate.
  • In the last to last meeting, ECB tapered asset purchases to €30 billion and extended the program until September 2018. The current program was due to expire at the end of 2017.

Expectation today –

  • European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current policy.
  • With ECB announcing clear path until September, an action is likely.

What to watch out for –

  • Change in inflation forecast.
     
  • Take on tapering or on the future path of monetary policies.
  • ECB’s take on stronger euro.
  • The high level of NPLs in European banks, especially in Italy.
     
  • Does ECB leave the door open for further interest rate cut or the next move to be a hike? How soon might such come?
  • Concerns with regard to European banks’ balance sheet and call for the creation of a pan European bad bank.
  • Contingency plans from the Brexit fallouts.
  • What are the major risks for Eurozone in 2018?
  • Whether ECB seems comfortable with the level of the Euro or does Draghi talk the currency down.

Impact –

The euro has remained upbeat despite the European Central Bank (ECB) extending the asset purchase program beyond expectation. The euro is currently trading at 1.24 against the dollar.

 

 

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