Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over next 12 months

FOMC increased interest rates again in December for the third time and projected three more hikes in 2018. However, debates among policymakers are growing over hikes as inflation remains low. Charles Evans joined Neel Kashkari in opposing another hike in December. The market, however, started pricing the third hike in December. Let’s look at hike probabilities for the next 12 months.  Current FOMC rate is at 125-150 basis points. (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 22nd January)

• January 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 98.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.
   
• March 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 26.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 72.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 1.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
   
• May 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 25.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 71.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 2.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.  
   
• June 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 6.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 37.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 54.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25.
   
• August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 5.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 34.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 53 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 6.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
   
• September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 2.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 17.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 42 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 3.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   
• November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 2.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 16 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 39.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 35.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 6.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   
• December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 10.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 30.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 17.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, 2.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   

The probability is suggesting,

• Since our last review a week ago, the probability of rate hikes for the near months haven’t changed much, however, the market has begun pricing the third hike in December.
• Next hike is priced in March with 74.2 percent probability, instead of 73.7 percent a week ago.
• The market brought forwarded the second hike for 2018 in June and pricing it with 56.3 percent probability compared to 52.7 percent probability, a week ago.
   
• The market is pricing the third hike in December with 57.9 percent probability instead of 49.2 percent probability just a week ago.

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