Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
BOJ Policymakers Warn Weak Yen Could Fuel Inflation Risks and Delay Rate Action 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 4th March)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 92.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 7.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 90.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 90.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have somewhat tightened.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 and that with just 9.7 percent probability, compared to a 4.5 percent a week ago and 1.8 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is far from pricing a rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- However, the market is no longer pricing the possibility of a rate cut compared to 12.5 percent probability last week.
