BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
Japan Declines Comment on BOJ’s Absence From Global Support Statement for Fed Chair Powell. Source: Asturio Cantabrio, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
Federal Reserve Faces Subpoena Delay Amid Investigation Into Chair Jerome Powell 
ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates as Fed Risks Loom Over Outlook 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 28th January)
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 95.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 4.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 91.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 79.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, 19.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is 76.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 21.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is 72.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 24.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is 72.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 24.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 69.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 23.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened somewhat.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 with 26.2 percent probability, compared to a 23.4 percent a week ago and 10.8 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is still pricing no rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- The market is now pricing a rate cut in 2019 with 4.3 percent probability, compared to 4.4 percent a week ago, and 17.4 percent probability, a week before that.
