Bank of England interest rate rise: why this could be the last increase for a while 
The Federal Reserve and the art of navigating a soft landing ... when economic data sends mixed signals 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Why the Bank of England is now more upbeat than the IMF 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 7th January)
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 94.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 78.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 21.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is 77.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 21.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is 75.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 22.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is 75.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 22.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 72.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 21.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened somewhat.
- The market is just pricing one rate hike for 2019 with 23.4 percent probability, compared to a 10.8 percent a week ago and 3.7 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is still pricing no rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- The market is now pricing a rate cut in 2019 with 4.4 percent probability, compared to 17.4 percent a week ago, and 25.6 percent probability, a week before that.
