Market Roundup
- EUR/USD -0.02%, USD/JPY -0.22%, GBP/USD -0.13%, EUR/GBP 0.11%
- DXY 0.03%, DAX 0.92%, FTSE 0.42%, Brent -0.19%, Gold -0.08%
- China warns U.S. not to open Pandora's Box, unleash trade ills on world
- Great Britain Nationwide House Price YY Mar, 2.1%, 2.6% forecast, 2.2% previous
- Germany Unemployment Chg SA Mar, -19K, -15K forecast, -22K previous
- Germany Unemployment Rate SA Mar, 5.3%, 5.3% forecast, 5.4% previous
- Germany Unemployment Total SA Mar, 2.373M, 2.393M previous
- Italy Producer Prices YY Feb, 1.6%, 1.7% previous
- Great Britain Mortgage Lending Feb, 3.718B, 3.500B forecast, 3.389B previous
- Great Britain GDP QQ Q4, 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
- Great Britain GDP YY Q4, 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
- Great Britain Business Invest YY, 2.6%, 2.1% previous
- Great Britain Current Account GBP Q4, -18.44B, -24.00B, -22.78B
- Shanghai oil on par with U.S. market as local traders bet on lower prices
- Gold steadies as N. Korea, global trade concerns ease
- Oil prices rise as OPEC seen continuing supply cuts through 2018
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases personal income figures for December, which is expected to rise 0.4 percent, after staying unchanged in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the month of February. The index is expected to rise at an annualized rate of 1.7 percent, while core PCE is likely to have increased 0.2 percent after advancing 0.3 percent in January.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Personal spending is likely to rise 0.2 percent in the month of February, after posting similar gains in January.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have increased by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Mar. 23, while continuing claims for the week ended Mar. 16 is expected to rise to 1.875 million from previous 1.828 million.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases its Raw Material Price Index for the month of February. The index posted a rise of 3.3 percent in January.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada will report its industrial producer prices for the month of February. The indicator rose 0.3 percent in the prior month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product increased 0.1 percent in January after posting a similar rise in December.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index is likely to show that business conditions rose to 62.0 in March from 61.9 last month.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 102.0 in March, unchanged from previous reading in February.
Key Events Ahead
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at a New York Association of Business Economics luncheon.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index plunged after rising to a 1-week high in the previous session as fears of a full-blown trade war eased hopes that negotiations between U.S. and China can bring a compromise. The greenback against a basket of currencies 0.1 percent down at 90.01, having touched a high of 90.15 the day before, its highest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 82.77 (Slightly Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded from a 1-week low after data showed German jobless total dropped more than expected in March and the unemployment rate touched a record low. Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless total fell by 19,000 to 2.373 million, while the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent in March from previous month reading of 5.4, recording its lowest level since German reunification in 1990. The European currency traded 0.05 percent up at 1.2313, having touched a low of 1.2295, its lowest since Mar. 22. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 40.28 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2362 (5-DMA), a break above targets 1.2421 (Mar. 28 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2285, a break below could drag it lower 1.2258.
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen after China warned the United States not to escalate trade conflict and spark a flurry of protectionist practices across the globe. The major was trading 0.3 percent down at 106.58, having hit a high of 107.01 the day before, its highest since Mar. 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 111.05 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims, personal consumption expenditures and FOMC member Harker's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 107.05 (Mar. 9 High), a break above targets 107.30. On the downside, support is seen at 106.08 (21-DMA), a break below could take it lower 105.84 (10-DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling slumped to an over 1-week low after data showed Britain's gross domestic product grew slower than expected, hurt by the hit to consumer spending after the 2016 Brexit vote. The economy's GDP rose 0.4 percent on the quarter, slowing from 0.5 percent in the third quarter and 1.4 percent compared with the last three months of 2016. The major traded 0.1 percent down at 1.4062, having hit a low of 1.4035 earlier, it’s lowest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 58.29 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.4138 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.4218 (Mar. 22 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.4025 (Jan 29 Low), a break below targets 1.3982 (Mar. 20 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 87.61 pence, having hit a low of 87.97 pence on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Mar 20.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased to a 2-month low after data showed Swiss KOF leading indicator fell to 106.0 from revised 108.4 and against an estimate of 107.3. The major trades 0.05 percent up at 0.9566, having touched a high of 0.9583 earlier in the session, it’s highest since Jan. 23. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -147.28 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9600 and any break above will take the pair to next level till 0.9640 (Jan 22 High). The near-term support is around 0.9510 (10-DMA) and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9472 (21-DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rebounded, boosted by a recovery among cyclical sectors and a raft of M&A news, while sterling tumbled to an over 1-week low on weak-than-expected gross domestic product figures.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index advanced 0.5 percent to 371.17 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index surged 0.5 percent to 1,453.43 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.4 percent up at 7,074.23 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 rallied 0.4 percent to 19,436.36 points.
Germany's DAX rose 1.03 percent at 12,063.18 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.7 percent higher at 5,163.38 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined to an over 1-week low despite the producer cartel OPEC and other suppliers looking set to continue withholding output for the rest of 2018 and potentially into 2019. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 1.8 percent down at $68.58 per barrel by 1018 GMT, having hit a high of $71.00 on Tuesday, its highest since Jan. 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.2 percent up at $64.52 a barrel, after rising as high as $66.52 on Monday, its strongest since Jan 25.
Gold prices declined to a fresh 1-week low, having posted its biggest one-day percentage fall in nearly 9 months in the prior session, as tensions over North Korea and global trade war receded. Spot gold was trading 0.1 percent down at $1,323.48 per ounce at 1021 GMT, after hitting a low of $1,322.82 earlier in the session, it's lowest since March 21. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were steady at $1,324 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries gained Thursday ahead of the country’s initial jobless claims and personal consumption expenditure indicator, scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries slid nearly 1 basis point to 2.76 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also fell 1 basis point to 3.00 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year too traded nearly a basis point lower at 2.27 percent.
The German bunds slid after the country’s employment report for the month of March, did not disappoint market expectations, thus weighing on asset prices. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.50 percent, the yield on 30-year note surged 1-1/2 basis points to 1.16 percent and the yield on short-term 3-year traded tad higher at -0.45 percent.
The Japanese government bonds fell as investors hope to see an improvement in the country’s industrial production for the month of February, scheduled to be released today by 23:30GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.04 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note remained tad higher at 0.74 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point higher at -0.13 percent.
The Australian government bonds mixed as investors continued to stay on the sidelines ahead of long Easter holiday. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 2.590 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note dipped 1/2 basis point to 3.183 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year rose 2 basis points to 2.017 percent.
