Market Roundup
•Germany May Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 48.51, 47.38 previous
•EU May Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) 46.60, 46.61 previous
•UK BoE Apr MPC vote unchanged 7,9 forecast,8 previous
•UK BoE Apr BoE MPC vote cut 2,0 forecast,1 previous
•UK BoE Apr BoE MPC vote hike 0,0 forecast,0 previous
•UK BoE Apr BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.25% ,5.25% forecast,5.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 212K forecast, 208K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,790K forecast, 1,774K previous\
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 210.00K previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 87B forecast, 59B previous
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,362B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases
• UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•14:00 Canada BoC Financial System Review
•15:00 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•16:15 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited fresh inflation data to better assess the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Fed Boston President Susan Collins said the U.S. economy needs to cool off as an avenue toward getting inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. Traders will be closely watching April U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) out next week for signs that inflation has resumed its downward trend toward the Fed's 2% target rate. On Thursday, the US will release its weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. The euro was last down at $1.0741. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0810(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0888(23.650% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0740 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0723(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE) held its benchmark interest rates at 5.25% . The BoE held rates steady but a second official in the Monetary Policy Committee backed a cut and Governor Andrew Bailey said he was "optimistic that things are moving in the right direction".BoE officials voted 7-2 to keep rates at a 16-year high. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined Swati Dhingra in voting for a cut to 5%. Money markets had almost fully priced in that the central bank would keep rates unchanged.They now expects a first cut in August, with the odds of such a move coming in June down to a 44% chance, compared to a 55% chance seen earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2507 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2567(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2469 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2433 ( 61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as traders focused on U.S. inflation data due next week and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Traders will be closely watching April U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) out next week for signs that inflation has resumed its downward trend toward the Fed's 2% target rate. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.17% to 105.70, having touched a one-week high earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9178 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9056(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9002(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday ahead of jobless claims data that is expected to offer more clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path for the year. The Japanese yen dribbled down to 155.85 per dollar in a fourth day of falls. It rose more than 3% last week with market participants pointing to likely intervention by Japanese authorities twice to stem its fast decline.Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda had said overnight there was no limit for reserves in currency intervention, keeping traders on edge, while minutes from the Bank of Japan's April meeting also showed policymakers had turned overwhelmingly hawkish . Strong resistance can be seen at 156.29 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.38(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 152.86(50% fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index retreated on Thursday from a recent rally, with a handful of heavily weighted stocks trading ex-dividend, while shares of Spanish bank BBVA slumped after announcing a hostile takeover bid for smaller rival Sabadell.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.98 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.33 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday as falling U.S. crude inventories and higher Chinese imports supported expectations for demand growth in the world's two largest crude-consuming nations.
Brent crude futures for July were up 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $84.15 a barrel at 1131 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June was up 56 cents, or 0.7%, to $79.55 per barrel.
