Market Roundup
• German May GfK Consumer Climate -24.2,-25.9 forecast,-27.4 previous
• French Apr Business Survey 100, 102 forecast,102 previous
•Sweden Apr Manufacturing Confidence 100.5, 98.7 previous
•Sweden Apr Consumer Confidence 88.9, 87.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Mar Goods Trade Balance -91.10B forecast,-91.84B previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.90% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 214K forecast, 212K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,814K forecast,1,812K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.50K previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.2%forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q1) 1.8% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)3.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q1)3.40% forecast,2.00% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•14:00 US Mar Pending Home Sales Index 75.6 previous
•14:00 US Mar Pending Home Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,1.6% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 87B forecast,50B previous
•15:00 US Apr KC Fed Composite Index -5 forecast,-7 previous
•15:00 US Apr KC Fed Manufacturing Index -9 previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro stretched against dollar on Thursday as dollar dipped ahead of US GDP data . U.S. economic data out later on Thursday includes first-quarter economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) likely increased at a 2.4% annualised rate, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The consumer sentiment index published jointly by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) rose to -24.2 heading into May from a slightly revised -27.3 in April.That reading, the third increase in a row, beat the expectations of analysts of -26.0 and marks a two-year high, though sentiment still remains extremely low.Income expectations were a bright spot, climbing 12.2 points to 10.7, boosted by falling inflation and rising wages. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0717(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0762(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0655(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600 (23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose versus the dollar and the euro as investors assessed the Bank of England's monetary policy path after recent mixed signals from policymakers.The pound dropped late last week and on Monday versus the greenback as Governor Andrew Bailey said that inflation was broadly declining in line with BoE forecasts, which would indicate that interest rates might fall more quickly than the market currently expects. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday that rate cuts remained some way off, even if the passage of time and an absence of bad news on inflation had brought them closer.Some analysts argued that recent British economic data would suggest a later rather than earlier start of the BoE monetary easing cycle. Sterling was up 0.4% at $1.2519, having risen 0.8% on Tuesday, the most in one day since mid-December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2474 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2504(April 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2409 (38.2 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2234 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Thursday as dollar eased against US GDP data. Investors are waiting for U.S. economic data later in the session with analysts flagging the first quarter U.S. core gross domestic product (GDP) price deflator, which can provide indications for Friday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The dollar dipped 0.2% to 105.59 against a basket of currencies , though it pulled away from a nearly two-week low hit in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9163 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9111(EMA 9), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9088(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose fresh 34 year high against yen against on Thursday as investors awaited Friday’s Bank of Japan policy meeting . BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be mindful of an episode in 2022, when his predecessor's dovish remarks triggered a yen plunge that forced Tokyo to intervene to prop up the currency. However, the prospect of Japanese rates staying low for an extended period and expectations for a delayed start to U.S. rate cuts have continued to push down the yen.Analysts expect the BOJ meeting to deliver a marginally hawkish outcome, with the central bank possibly just announcing a modest decline in its bond buying plans. On Thursday, the greenback rose to a 34-year high of 155.74 yen and was last 0.2% higher at 155.62 .Strong resistance can be seen at 155.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.13 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.34 (5 EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 153.63 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged lower on Thursday as traders gauged mixed earnings from blue-chip companies such as Nestle and Deutsche Bank, while big M&A news in the mining sector powered Britain's FTSE 100 to fresh peaks.
At (GMT 12:21 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.79percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.78 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil steadied on Thursday after settling lower the previous day as signs of retreating fuel demand in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $87.98 a barrel by 1005 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $82.74.
