Market Roundup
•EU Mar Loans to Non Financial Corporations 0.4% ,0.4% previous
•EU Mar M3 Money Supply (YoY) 0.9% ,0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY)0.2%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 1.3%, 0.0% previous
•US Mar PCE price index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Mar Personal Income (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (YoY) ) 2.7%,2.6% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US Mar Personal Spending (MoM) 0.6%forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Mar Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5%,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 US Mar Dallas Fed PCE 3.40% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast,2.9% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 77.8 forecast,79.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 77.0 forecast, 77.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast,2.8% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 79.3 forecast,82.5 previous
•15:00 Canada Feb Budget Balance (YoY) -25.70B previous
•15:00 Canada Feb Budget Balance -2.10B previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as hopes of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts this year drained from the market following a series of U.S economic data. Traders now expect the Fed to lower its main funds rate, currently at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%, by just 36 basis points this year, with some fearing a further hike. The ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate from a record 4% in June but analysts have queried how far it can diverge from U.S. monetary policy without weakening the euro significantly.The euro last traded at $1.072, 0.6% lower against the dollar this month .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0743(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0762(30 EMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0707(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0662(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Friday against the dollar as markets awaited clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves.It was flat at $1.2510 after rising earlier in the day to its highest against the dollar since April 12, adding to Thursday's rally after U.S. data showed economic growth unexpected slowed, while inflation accelerated, which reinforced expectations the Fed would not cut interest rates before September. The main focus on Friday was the weakening yen, which fell to a 34-year low against the dollar with markets on edge about possible intervention after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold.Against the Japanese currency, sterling jumped 1.3% to 196.11, having touched its highest level since September 2008. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2543 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2579(50EMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2463 (23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2403 (April 16th low).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as dollar eased following Thursday’s US GDP data. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the January-March period, slower than the 2.4% rate expected by economists. The report also showed that underlying inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% in the first quarter, eclipsing forecasts for a 3.4% rise. Following the GDP data, the U.S. rate futures market was pricing in a 58% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, down from 70% late on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.Rate futures traders on Thursday were factoring in a 68% chance that the Fed's first rate cut since 2020 could happen at its meeting in November.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9163 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9111(EMA 9), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9088(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose sharply against yen against on Friday as markets on edge about possible intervention after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold . After a two-day meeting, the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate target at 0-0.1% on Friday and made small upward adjustments in its inflation forecast. Investors had not expected a policy shift but took the decision as confirmation that only small moves lie ahead.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a press conference after the rate decision that monetary policy did not directly target currency rates, but exchange-rate volatility could have a significant impact on the economy and prices. The yen was last down 0.66% at 156.67, after briefly jumping to 154.97, having hit minutes earlier its lowest level of 156.82 per dollar since 1990. Strong resistance can be seen at 156.89 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.44 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.63 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday and looked set to end the week higher as investors cheered robust results from tech giants in the United States, while Thyssenkrupp was on course for its best day in 23 months on a divesture announcement.
At (GMT 13:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.83percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.48 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Friday and were set for a weekly decline as investor attention turned to key U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold dipped 0.1% to $2,331.15 per ounce as of 0136 GMT. Prices are down nearly $100 from the all-time high of $2,431.29 scaled on April 12, fuelled by geopolitical turmoil.
Oil prices rose on Friday, on track to end higher this week after two straight weeks of losses, after a top U.S. official expressed optimism over economic growth and as supply concerns lingered due to conflicts in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.20 a barrel at 0927 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $83.82 a barrel.
