Market Roundup
•Sweden GDP (QoQ) (Q1)-0.1%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Sweden GDP (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% previous
•Sweden GDP (YoY) (Q1)-1.1%, -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Spanish Apr CPI (YoY) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•Spanish Apr Spanish HICP (YoY) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.3% previous
•German Apr CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.5% previous
•German Apr CPI (YoY) 2.5%,2.3% previous
•German Apr CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
•German Apr CPI (YoY) 3.0%, 2.8% previous
•German Apr CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
•German Apr CPI (MoM) 0.6% ,0.3% previous
•EU Apr Business Climate -0.53,-0.30 previous
•EU Apr Consumer Confidence -14.7,-14.7 forecast,-14.9 previous
•EU Apr Services Sentiment 6.0 ,6.5 forecast,6.3 previous
•EU Apr Consumer Inflation Expectation 11.6,12.3 previous
•German Apr CPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast, 2.2% previous
•German Apr German CPI (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.710% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.474% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.825% previous
•14:00 US Mar Dallas Fed PCE 3.40% previous
•14:30 US Apr Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -14.4 previous
•15:00 Canada Feb Budget Balance (YoY) -25.70B previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.255% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.160% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as investors attention turned to this weeks euro zone economic data and a U.S. policy decision . European flash inflation data this week will give more information for the ECB to consider. Spain's European Union-harmonised inflation rate stood at 3.4% in the 12 months through April, up from 3.3%. Data from Germany is due later in the day, though provincial data also showed a small rise in some states. .U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday will give further clues on the U.S. rate path later in the year . Against the dollar, the euro rose 0.22% to $1.0715. The dollar index fell 0.25% to 105.69, though was headed for a monthly gain of 1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0721(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0751(61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0690(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound reached its highest in around two weeks against the dollar at the start of a week packed with market-moving events. Versus the dollar, the pound was up 0.27% at $1.25275, its highest since April 12, a small recovery from five-month lows in mid April, when investors' expectations the Bank of England would cut interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve caused them to sell the pound. Markets expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates in August, while the Fed is expected to wait until later in the year, causing the gap between U.S. and British government bond yields to widen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2543 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2595(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2495 (38.2 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2445 (50 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as market focus tuned to the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement on Wednesday. The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Investors are now only confident about a single cut this year, most likely in November, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.Expectations of delayed Fed cuts have caused the dollar to gain against most currencies in recent weeks, with other major central banks such as the European Central Bank and Bank of England set to cut more substantially this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9163 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9185(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9081(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9021(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen against on Monday as traders reported heavy yen-buying intervention by Japanese banks for the first time in 18 months. The dramatic move begins what could be a busy week for currency traders with a Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday, U.S. payrolls data on Friday, and European inflation data throughout the week, beginning with German and Spain on Monday. The dollar fell as far as 154.4 yen in several sudden moves in Asia trade and again in the European morning that knocked it from an intraday high of 160.245, its highest since 1990.Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to comment when asked if authorities had intervened, though traders said they had.The dollar was at 156.25 yen by 11.40 GMT, down 1.3%. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.39 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.30(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.39 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 154.63 (50% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares touched a two-week high on Monday, extending last week's strong run, with euro zone economic data and a U.S. policy decision in focus.
At (GMT 13:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Monday as Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo tempered fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East, while U.S. inflation data dimmed the prospects of interest rate cuts anytime soon.
Brent crude futures for June , which expire on Tuesday, were down by 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $88.99 a barrel by 0950 GMT. The more active July contract fell 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $87.94 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $83.63 a barrel.
