Market Roundup
•German Jan HICP (YoY) 3.1%,3.1%forecast,3.8% previous
• German Jan CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• German Jan CPI (YoY) 2.9%,2.9% forecast,3.7% previous
•Italian Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 1.1%, 0.8% forecast, -1.5% previous
•Italian Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -2.1% ,-3.1% previous
•Greek Dec Industrial Production (YoY) 4.3%, 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Jan Participation Rate 65.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Employment Change 16.0K forecast,0.1K previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Unemployment Rate 5.9% ,5.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Full Employment Change -23.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Part Time Employment Change 23.6K previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 499 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 619 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:30 Canada BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey
•18:30 US Fed Logan Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Friday as dollar gained on dwindling prospects of early interest rate cuts in the United States. Strong U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal reserve policymakers prompted investors to reassess their rate-cut expectations for the year. Markets are now awaiting U.S. inflation data due next week for further clues on rate cuts. Month-on-month core consumer price inflation in the United States is expected to have remained steady at 0.3% in January, according to economists polled. Money markets now see a 48% chance of a rate cut in April, having fully priced in such a move at the end of January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0832( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0873 ( Feb 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0754(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0701(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied versus the dollar on Friday, as investors were more confident of the Bank of England's intention to leave interest rates where they are for now. Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Bank of England's policy-making committee, recently supported a decision to increase interest rates. He expressed optimism about indications suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in Britain. However, he emphasized the importance of additional evidence confirming this trend before considering any adjustments to his position. Next week comes a slew of UK data, including consumer inflation and economic growth, all of which have the potential to affect the interest rate forecast.Sterling was last down 0.1% versus the dollar, at $1.261.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2639(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2595(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2528(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited next week's US inflation report for hints on when the Federal Reserve would begin decreasing interest rates. After several Fed policymakers this week said they would wait to cut rates until they were more confident that inflation would fall to 2%, all eyes will be on Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index report.Traders now see about a 61% chance of an interest rate cut in May, according to the CME Fedwatch tool, opens new tab. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8766(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8797(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8370(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8678(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as investors awaited next week's U.S. inflation data, seeking insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.The greenback headed for a fourth weekly gain on Friday, pushing the yen to a 10-month low, as traders dialled back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them .Odds of the Fed cutting rates in March have dropped below 20%, while those for May have also fallen to about 60%, down from about 73% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.70(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.98(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.00 (Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 147.93(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were trading flat on Friday, as gains in healthcare stocks and video games group Ubisoft were offset by a rise in government bond yields following a pullback in aggressive bets on early interest-rate cuts.
At (GMT 13:13 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were subdued on Friday, hurt by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, while investors looked ahead to next week's U.S. inflation reading for clues on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.2% to $2,029.80 per ounce at 1236 GMT, with prices down 0.5% over the week. U.S. gold futures also lost 0.2% to $2,044.50 per ounce.
Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday, amid fears of a broader Middle East conflict after Israel rejected Hamas' ceasefire offer.
Brent futures closed up $2.42, or 3%, to $81.36 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $2.36, or 3.2%, to $76.22.
The Brent benchmark breached $80 a barrel and WTI rose above $75 a barrel for the first time in February.
