Market Roundup
•US NY Apr Empire State Manufacturing Index -14.30,-5.20 forecast,-20.90 previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 137.7K,116.9K previous
•Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.1%,0.5% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7%,0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Mar Retail Control (MoM) 1.1% ,0.0% previous
•US Mar Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 1.0%,0.3% previous
•Canada Feb Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.0%,0.8% forecast,0.1% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.706%,3.697% previous
•French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.814%,3.827% previous
•French 12-Months BTF Auction 3.471%,3.461% previous
•US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4%,0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Apr NAHB Housing Market Index 51 ,51 forecast,51 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•02:00 Chinese Mar Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 6.0% forecast, 7.0% previous
•02:00 Chinese Mar GDP YTD (YoY) (Q1)5.0% forecast,5.2% previous
•02:00 Chinese Mar Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.2% previous
•02:00 Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 5.4% forecast, 7.0% previous
•02:00 Chinese GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 1.0% previous
•02:00 Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 5.1% forecast,5.5% previous
•02:00 Chinese Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.2% forecast, 5.3% previous
•02:00 Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) 5.50% previous
•02:00 Chinese GDP (YoY) (Q1) 4.8% forecast, 5.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday after U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month and data for February was revised higher to show sales rebounding 0.9% instead 0.6% as previously reported. Economists polled by had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.3% in March.. The euro fell as low as $1.0622, the weakest since Nov. 3, and was last down 0.18% at $1.0623.The single currency recorded its biggest weekly percentage drop since late September 2022 last week as the European Central Bank left the door open to a rate cut in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0665(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0698(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0627 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Monday as markets prepared for a data-heavy week that could influence Bank of England policy in the coming months. Labour market data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday will be key to determining how soon the BoE can cut interest rates, with markets pricing August as the most likely start date for policy easing. Traders are pricing just under a 50% chance of an interest rate cut in June, while only two quarter-point rate cuts are priced this year, which strategists say could leave sterling vulnerable if the data causes markets to price in looser policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as simmering tensions in the Middle East helped boost greenback. Over the weekend Iran launched a missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for a suspected attack on its embassy, and calls for restraint regarding Israel's response appeared to be calming helping tensions in the region. Crude oil prices inched lower after Iran's weekend attack on Israel proved less damaging than anticipated.U.S. crude dipped 0.29% to settle at $85.41 per barrel, while and Brent settled at $90.10 per barrel, down 0.39% on the day. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.016% lower at 1.3786 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3810 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3840 (Nov 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3708 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3689(9 EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday after data showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March amid a surge in receipts at online retailers, further evidence that the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground.The report from the Commerce Department on Monday, which followed news this month of robust employment gains in March and a pick-up in consumer inflation, bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September. Some economists see the window for lowering rates this year closing . Japanese monetary officials have ramped up warnings that they may intervene to shore up the currency. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday he was watching currency moves closely, repeating that Tokyo is "fully prepared" to act. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.54(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.66 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.86(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index closed on a subdued note on Monday, as energy shares dropped on weak oil prices and offset gains in industrials, while investors were on guard as they watched out for developments in the Middle East.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.38percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 43 percent.
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, as an early lift from a strong retail sales report succumbed to a jump in Treasury yields and concerns about rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.65 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 1.20 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.79 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Monday due to safe-haven demand spurred by Middle East tensions, even as the dollar and Treasury yields gained following a higher-than-expected uptick in U.S. retail sales in March, feeding apprehensions that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates this year.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,365.09 per ounce as of 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after hitting a record high of $2,431.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,383.
Oil prices slipped lower on Monday after Iran's weekend attack on Israel proved to be less damaging than anticipated, easing concerns of a quickly intensifying conflict that could displace crude barrels.
Brent futures for June delivery settled at $90.10 a barrel, down 35 cents, or 0.4%. U.S. crude futures for May delivery fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $85.41 a barrel.
