Market Roundup
• Italian Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -3.1%, -3.4% previous
•Italian Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1%, 0.6% forecast,-1.2% previous
•Irish Mar HICP (YoY) 1.7%,1.7% forecast,2.3% previous
•Irish Mar Irish CPI (YoY) 2.9%, 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:15 EU Apr ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•12:15 EU Apr Deposit Facility Rate 4.00% forecast, 4.00% previous
•12:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75% previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 214.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,791K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 216K forecast,221K previous
•12:30 US Mar PPI (YoY) 2.2% forecast,1.6% previous
•12:30 US Mar Core PPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast,2.0% previous
•12:30 US Mar PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 US Mar Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.265% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.260% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:15 EU ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•12:45 EU ECB Press Conference
•12:45 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•14:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•14:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Collins Speaks
•17:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro continued to decline against dollar on Thursday after stubborn U.S. inflation numbers triggered the biggest global market selloff . Investor focus will now be on U.S. producer price data and the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day. The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep borrowing costs at a record high but is likely to signal that a rate cut could come as soon as June, given a sharp slowdown in inflation and continued economic weakness. The ECB has kept interest rates steady since September but has already signalled that cuts are coming into view, with policymakers awaiting a few more comforting wage indicators before pulling the trigger.The euro was down 1.2% at $1.0727 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0874(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0903(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0845 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0824 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Thursday as investors moved their focus from hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision later in the day. Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain borrowing costs in its monetary policy decision at 1215 GMT, though it could signal an interest rate cut as soon as June, fueled by a recent downturn in Eurozone inflation. UK gross domestic product (GDP) data due on Friday will provide an indication as to the state of the economy and clues on how much longer the Bank of England (BoE) can hold rates at 5.25%.The pound was down 0.02% at $1.2536 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2563(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2602(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2519(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors awaited European Central Bank meeting after stubborn U.S. inflation numbers. Any change in ECB rates would come as a major surprise to markets, but the focus is on what president Christine Lagarde says about the pace of cuts, after multiple hints from policy markers in recent weeks, some quite explicit, that the central bank will start cuts at its June meeting. U.S. producer price inflation data later today could shape that picture further, as it will give additional information about what to expect from personal consumption inflation data, due later in the month, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9149(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9086(5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9067 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was flat on the day, but at its highest since 1990 brought intervention fears back as authorities in Tokyo reiterated they would not rule out any steps to deal with excessive swings. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, warned on Thursday that authorities would not rule out any steps to respond to disorderly exchange-rate moves. Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 as the yen slid toward what was then a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. The yen is down nearly 8% against the dollar this year, with the currency rooted near 151-per-dollar levels since the Bank of Japan last month ended eight years of negative interest rates. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.36(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.42 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.27(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday as investors avoided big bets ahead of a monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank and remarks by ECB's Christine Lagarde on the outlook for interest rate cuts.
At (GMT 11:56 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.79 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Thursday amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties with potential gains being tempered by hot U.S. inflation data, dampening expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting the rate-cutting cycle in June.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,330.92 per ounce, as of 0956 GMT.U.S. gold futures was flat at $2,348.00.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as persistent inflation dampened rate cut optimism but stayed near six-month highs as investors braced for a potential attack on Israeli interests by Iran.
Brent crude futures were down 49 cents or 0.5% to $89.99 a barrel at 1030 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 55 cents or 0.6% to $85.66 a barrel.
