Market Roundup
•UK Feb Unemployment Rate 4.2%, 4.0% forecast,3.9%previous
•UK Feb Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.0%,6.1% previous
•UK Mar Claimant Count Change 10.9K,17.2K forecast,16.8K previous
•UK Feb Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) -156K,-21K previous
•UK Feb Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.6%, 5.5% forecast,5.6% previous
•Italian Mar CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
• Italian CPI (YoY) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast,0.8% previous
• German Apr ZEW Current Conditions -79.2,-80.5 previous
•EU Feb Trade Balance 23.6B,11.4B previous
•German Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment 42.9,35.9 forecast,31.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Mar CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar CPI (MoM) 0.7% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Mar Building Permits (MoM) 2.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar Building Permits 1.514M forecast, 1.524M previous
•12:30 US Housing Starts 1.480M forecast, 1.521M previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Median CPI (YoY) 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
•12:30 US Mar Housing Starts (MoM) 10.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Core CPI (YoY) 2.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Core CPI (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:55 Redbook (YoY) 5.4 previous
•13:15 US Mar Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.8% previous
•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (YoY)-0.23% previous
•13:15 US Mar Capacity Utilization Rate 78.5% forecast,78.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•17:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•17:15 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•17:15 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday after data showed German investor morale reached highest level in two years. German investor morale brightened more than expected in April, reaching the highest level since March 2022, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday.The economic sentiment index rose to 42.9 points in April from 31.7 points in March. Analysts polled had pointed to an April reading of 35.0. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany, however, remained almost unchanged. It rose to minus 79.2 points from minus 80.5 the previous month. The euro was up a touch to $1.0626, but still hovering near Nov. 2 lows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0665(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0698(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0627 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: Sterling stayed at a five-month low versus the dollar on Tuesday, after data showed Britain's unemployment rate rose by more-than-expected. The UK unemployment rate in the three months to February rose to 4.2% from 3.9%, although the Office for National Statistics said there was still some volatility in its data as it overhauls its survey which produces the figure. A poll of economists had forecast the February figure at 4%.Regular wages excluding bonuses grew by 6.0% compared with the same period a year earlier, easing from an increase of 6.1% in the November-to-January period. The pound was last flat on the day against the dollar at $1.24475, having touched its lowest since Nov. 17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales sent dollar higher. Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% last month, compared with a 0.3% rise that economists polled by Reuters had forecast, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not be in a rush to cut interest rates this year. Markets are now pricing in a 41% chance of the Fed cutting rates in July, compared with around 50% before the data, according to CME FedWatch tool.Investors will be watching for clues from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak later on Tuesday, his first comments since U.S. inflation data last week came in hotter than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9158(April 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9194(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9107 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9082(9EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday but gains were capped on worries of an intervention from Tokyo. The yen last hovered around 154.64 per dollar, its weakest level in 34 years, and close to what analysts say is the new resistance level of 155.That kept traders on high alert for yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities. With hedge funds building up their largest bets against the currency in 17 years, a rebound in the yen could trigger a significant rally.In Tokyo, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday he was closely watching currency moves and will take a "thorough response as needed. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.68(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.72 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.78 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were sharply lower on Tuesday amid signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Fed's rate trajectory.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.29 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.85 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.96 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, under pressure from high U.S. Treasury yields and as investors locked in profits from a rally that drove the precious metal to a record peak last week.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $2,372.27 per ounce by 1109 GMT. The metal rose 1.7% on Monday and touched an all-time high of $2,431.29 on Friday.
Oil edged lower on Tuesday as easing concern about supply risks and a rapidly escalating conflict after Iran's weekend attack on Israel offset data showing China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter.
Brent futures for June delivery fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $89.77 a barrel by 1140 GMT. U.S. crude for May slipped 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.03.
