Market Roundup
• Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 1.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:45 French Business Survey (Mar) 100 forecast, 102 previous
• 07:45 French Consumer Confidence (Mar) 89 forecast, 91 previous
•08:00 Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
•08:00 Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
•09:00 EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Feb) 2.8% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb) 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Feb) 17,344.7B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•09:00 EU ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited clarity on potential de-escalation in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and pared bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes.Geopolitical uncertainty remained high, though the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 99.576 after posting its biggest daily gain in a week in the prior session.Iran said it is reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war but has no plans for direct talks, leaving Asian stocks directionless. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said central banks should look past the oil shock, adding that current Federal Reserve policy is restraining the economy..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1615(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1653 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1487(March 23rd low).
GBP/USD:The British pound dipped against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited clearer signs of progress in Middle East de-escalation efforts, the outcome of which could shape the global financial and monetary policy landscape. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister who said his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had no intention of holding talks to wind down the conflict.Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran has attacked nations that host U.S. bases and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3441(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3512(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3213(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as rising energy costs from the Middle East war darkened the economic outlook. Rising energy costs are increasing economic risks, clouding the outlook. Despite exporting LNG and coal, Australia relies heavily on imports for petrol, fertiliser, and refined products.Elevated inflation had already led the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates to 4.10% across February and March.RBA Assistant Governor Kent warned a prolonged Gulf conflict could hurt growth, but said the Reserve Bank of Australia must curb rising inflation expectations.The hawkish tone led markets to nudge up the probability of another rate rise in May to 65%, while a move to 4.35% is fully priced by June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar struggles for direction on Thursday as traders divided over the Middle East conflict and looming Japanese FX market intervention risks. The US maintained that peace negotiations are ongoing, while Iran signaled it has no intention of holding direct talks with Washington.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany is pressing the U.S. and Israel to end the Iran war, while Gulf states had warned Washington that strikes on Iran’s infrastructure would trigger retaliation.Oil rose, trimming prior losses as Iran reviews a U.S. proposal, keeping energy supply concerns in focus.On the data front, Japan’s service inflation rose 2.7% y/y in February, supporting the view that a tight labour market is driving firms to pass on higher costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell in choppy trade on Thursday, while oil prices rose as investors stayed cautious amid fast-moving Middle East developments, with Iran saying it is reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the conflict.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.48% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 3.22 %, China A50 was down at 0.88 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Thursday after two days of gains, as investors awaited clearer signs of Middle East de-escalation that could influence global markets and monetary policy.
Spot gold fell 1% to $4,476.51 per ounce by 0555 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 2.1% to $4,457.
Oil rose more than $1 per barrel on Thursday, clawing back losses from the previous session, on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.
Brent futures rose $1.65, or 1.61%, to $103.87 a barrel by 0424 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.49, or 1.65%, at $91.81 a barrel.
