ECB's deposit rate cut likely in December

President Draghi's comments have supported current market expectations of a possible deposit rate cut in the coming months. 

"The ECB-dated Eonia forward curve has further inverted after Mr Draghi's comments and according to our calculations (based on our assumption of Eonia fixing bottoming out at the deposit rate +5bp), it is currently pricing in about a 90% probability of a 10bp deposit rate cut by the June 2016 meeting. Interestingly, the market is pricing in about a 40% chance of a 10bp deposit rate cut at the December meeting", says Barclays. 

Before today's meeting, these market-implied likelihoods were at about 50% and 20%, respectively. In addition, after today's reference to possible further monetary accommodation in December and explicitly admitting that a rate cut remains a policy option, the EURUSD weakened from about 1.1315 to below 1.12 at the time of writing.