Australia's export price index to rise by 2.0% in Q3

The slump in global commodity prices, which is denting export prices, continued in the September quarter. However, the Australian dollar fell at an even faster pace in the period, thereby cushioning commodity prices in AUD terms. The export price index is forecast to rise by 2.0% in the September quarter. That would still see prices 3% lower than a year ago and 12.5% lower than two years ago. 

In Q3, global commodity prices fell by around 5% in US dollar terms. The Australian dollar averaged 72.6US¢ in the quarter, down by around 7% from 77.9US¢ in Q2. The terms of trade for goods, on these estimates, would edge 0.8% higher but still be 7.5% lower over the year and 17.5% down on two years ago.