Market Roundup
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): 26.7, 10.3 forecast, 18.1 previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 207K, 213K forecast, 218K previous
• US Philly Fed Employment (Apr): -5.1, 0.8 previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,818K, 1,810K forecast, 1,787K previous
• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Feb): 124.0K, 114.4K previous
• US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Apr): 40.8, 40.0 previous
• US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr): 59.30, 44.70 previous
• US Philly Fed New Orders (Apr): 33.0, 8.6 previous
• US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Apr): 35.20, 25.80 previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 209.75K, 209.25K previous
•US Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar): 0.74%, 1.23% previous
•US Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Mar): 75.7%, 76.3% forecast, 76.1% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage: 59B, 55B forecast, 50B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.595%, 3.560% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.615%, 3.575% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as dollar gained some traction after data showed weekly U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected last week. New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable, though employers are cautious about increasing headcount as the war with Iran casts a shadow over the economy.Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.Claims are in the lower end of their 201,000-230,000 range for this year. While layoffs remain low, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be hindering hiring. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Thursday as better-than-expected February GDP data from the UK failed to support pound.Britain’s economy grew strongly in February, suggesting it was in better shape before the Iran war than many economists had expected, official data showed Thursday.Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, marking the strongest growth since January 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.The figures are likely to provide some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, though economists warn that Britain remains vulnerable to spillovers from the Middle East conflict.Separate ONS data showed Britain’s trade deficit, excluding volatile precious metals, widened to £5.627 billion ($7.62 billion) in February, the highest since November 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3596(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3674(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3492(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3435(Feb 19th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a three-week high against its safe-haven U.S. counterpart on Thursday as hopes rose of a diplomatic solution to end the war in the Middle East.U.S. President Donald Trump said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, potentially removing a key obstacle to a broader peace agreement in the region.The price of oil was up 2.4% at $93.52 a barrel. Canada is a major producer of oil and other energy products.Investors expect the Bank of Canada to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.25% at its next policy decision on April 29 but are pricing in one rate hike by the end of the year.Domestic data showed that home sales edged 0.1% lower in March from February and prices declined. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3703 per U.S. dollar, or 72.98 U.S. cents, marking its strongest level since March 23.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3743(April 16th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3774(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3690(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3638(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Thursday as traders assessed ongoing Middle East peace negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Lebanon and Israel had agreed on a 10-day ceasefire, saying the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran may take place over the weekend. Negotiators have scaled back some of their ambitions for those talks, two Iranian sources told Reuters, as the U.S. Navy is also now preventing Iranian vessels from transiting the strait.Israel has been waging a parallel campaign against Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump, in a post on Truth Social on Thursday, said that Israeli and Lebanese leaders had agreed to begin a 10-day ceasefire.On the data front, new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor-market conditions remain stable, though employers are cautious about hiring as the war with Iran casts a shadow over the economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were little changed on Thursday as investors balanced progress toward a potential resolution of the Middle East conflict with a fresh round of corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.14 percent.
The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose modestly to record closing highs for a second straight day on Thursday as optimism grew that the Middle East conflict may ease after a ceasefire in Lebanon and renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic signals over the weekend.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.24 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.26 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Thursday after hitting a one-month high in the previous session.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,785.57 per ounce as of 1:36 p.m. ET (1736 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $4,808.30.
Oil prices rose on Thursday on skepticism that forthcoming peace talks between the U.S. and Iran would be able to resolve disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies caused by the ongoing war.
Brent crude futures climbed $4.46, or 4.7%, to settle at $99.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $3.40, or 3.7%, to settle at $94.69 a barrel.
