ANZ Raises China’s 2025 Growth Forecast Amid Stronger Industrial Output and Policy Support

ANZ analysts have upgraded their 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.8% from 4.3%, citing robust industrial production and new policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and market confidence. The bank also raised its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5% from 4.0%.

China’s economy showed strong momentum in early 2025, with industrial production surging 5.9% year-on-year. Retail sales and fixed asset investment also exceeded last year’s averages, reinforcing positive economic trends.

However, challenges persist in the services sector, with urban unemployment rising to 5.4% in February from 5.1% in December. ANZ expects the government to focus on job creation, particularly in the private sector, to address employment concerns.

China’s latest 300 billion yuan trade-in program is expected to stimulate up to 1 trillion yuan in retail sales, supporting domestic consumption. The property sector also showed signs of recovery, with new home sales increasing during the Lunar New Year, although overall investment remains subdued.

ANZ projects China’s economic growth to stay above 5% in the first half of 2025 but warns of potential risks from U.S. tariffs and weakening global demand.

The outlook highlights China’s resilience despite global uncertainties, with industrial expansion and policy-driven stimulus playing key roles in sustaining growth.