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FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Assessment of RVs versus IVs AUD/JPY and MXN/JPY - Relative values in conditional spreads

Jan 31, 2017 10:57 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Pick up relative value in conditional spreads, the conditional long/short vanilla spreads provide another avenue to explore when looking to fade vol risk premia. The idea is to structure zero-cost (or even premium...

FxWirePro: USD/TRY FVAs hedge seems more appealing

Jan 31, 2017 09:25 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views

There is merit in earning carry in risk efficient form, and we sell USDTRY 1Yx1Y FVAs hedged with a static vanilla ATM call. USDTRY 1Yx1Y FVAs an appealing shorts, we are not chasing the drop in USD gamma lower;...

FxWirePro: Two FX derivatives trades for USD/RUB on threats of potential CBR FX interventions

Jan 31, 2017 07:41 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

In upcoming Russian monetary policy meeting, the CBR to remain on hold at 10%. Recent CBR rhetoric has been fairly cautious and we dont think the CBR would act at a non-core meeting (the next core meeting is in March)....

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Deploy AUD/USD option combinations - ITM put versus OTM call to match IV skews and delta risk reversals on tight range

Jan 31, 2017 06:18 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views

AUD remained in ranging mode, mostly between 0.7747 and 0.7162: Remains contained in a consolidative range of 0.7500-0.7600. AUDUSD in medium term perspective: Lower to 0.7400. The US dollars impressive post-election...

FxWirePro: Canadian Q4 GDP likely to cushion CAD – Optimal hedging in USD/CAD exposures via diagonal 3-way straddles

Jan 30, 2017 12:52 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In Canada, November real GDP expected to rebound 0.4% MoM. Q416 real GDP still tracking our 1.3% QoQ, forecast. Wholesale sales softer than expected in November. CMHC issues warning to homebuyers in overheated...

FxWirePro: Gold glitters above 38.2% levels to begin 2017, OTC hedging sentiments bullish bias, IVs indicate straddling prices – Straps to hedge

Jan 30, 2017 10:40 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Gold prices in January series have retraced back above 38.2% Fibonacci retracements from the lows of six months downtrend (i.e. 1122.81 levels), earlier the upswings have hit 50% but could not sustain to slide to the...

FxWirePro: US Q4 GDP shrinks, mounting OTC functions in USD/JPY ahead of BoJ MPS - Option Strips to capitalize HY IVs

Jan 30, 2017 07:25 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

OTC and fundamental updates: Please be noted that the IVs are spiking of across various tenors, while delta risk reversals indicate a shift in hedging sentiments that shows offloading in heavy downside risks ahead of...

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Economy

US Dollar Dips as Iran Rejects Ceasefire Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

The US dollar edged lower on Monday as geopolitical uncertainty intensified after Iran rejected a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire proposal, pushing the US Dollar Index down marginally to 99.98. The euro remained flat due to...

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

Politics

Iran-US War Tensions Escalate as Trump Sets Deadline for Strait of Hormuz Deal

Diplomatic tensions between Iran and the United States have reached a critical breaking point as President Donald Trump issued a firm Tuesday night deadline demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz a strategic waterway...

Hegseth Warns of Heaviest Strikes Yet as Trump Issues Iran Ultimatum Over Nuclear Deal

President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Iran on Monday, warning that the United States could launch devastating attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure including power plants and bridges unless Tehran agrees to...

Trump's Iran Deadline Is Final: Nuclear Deal Talks at Critical Juncture

With tensions escalating rapidly in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump declared Monday that his Tuesday deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement is firm and unlikely to be pushed back. Speaking to reporters...

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...