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FxWirePro: Commodity prices to signify Aussie dollar on edginess – Stay hedged on mounting OTC activities via optionality to arrest bearish risks in H2’2017

May 18, 2017 09:52 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Coal prices have spiked in the aftermath of Cyclone Debbie, but any price rise should be temporary. Severe supply disruptions following floods in Queensland (refer above chart) have pushed up the price of seaborne coking...

FxWirePro: Derive yields via derivatives on low vols but eventually less ECB QE

May 17, 2017 12:31 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

We look at how the sensitivity to global yields has changed after the greater reaction in longer-end rates in Japan and the Euro area in recent sell offs. With the BoJ having signaled it is comfortable with a steeper curve...

FxWirePro: Driving forces of neutral RUB stances and hedging vehicles

May 17, 2017 11:49 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

While rubles medium term structural drivers are supportive, a sequentially dovish shift by the central bank and uncertain oil outlook keeps us neutral. The fundamental drivers of RUB over the medium-term look attractive: a...

FxWirePro: Antipodeans seems rich against other commodity blocs in long-term fair value estimates

May 17, 2017 11:37 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

There has been substantial movement in G10 currencies over the past month, but the ranking of currencies on this framework hasnt changed. Despite JPY and CAD underperforming in the past month and GBP and EUR...

FxWirePro: Under abrupt gathering of storm clouds in CAD – Deploy collar options combination on bullish neutral risk reversals

May 17, 2017 11:01 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

CAD sharply depreciated by as much as 4.8% from mid-April highs on a layering of multiple concerns that suddenly gathered around Canada. These risks include fresh concerns over the US-Canada trade relationship, the...

FxWirePro: Dovish RBNZ to decelerate NZD’s pace, shrinking IVs to signal lackluster hedging activities

May 17, 2017 08:50 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The RBNZ was very dovish at the May MPS. Despite inflation recovering in 1Q to above 2%oya for the first time in six years, Governor Wheeler stuck to his neutral guidance, and the staff maintained their forecast that the...

FxWirePro: NZD/JPY option hedging formula - Aggressive bears prefer vanilla puts and risk averse hedgers rely on debit put spreads

May 17, 2017 08:31 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

NZD underperformed, despite a modest upside surprise from the GDT dairy auction, slipping from 0.6902 to 0.6863 against USD, and partly retracing to 0.6894. AUD/NZD rose from 1.0746 to 1.0800. The RBNZ has signaled the...

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Economy

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs

Indias services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 14 months during March, as the ongoing Middle East conflict weighed on domestic demand and cost pressures intensified sharply, according to the latest HSBC India...

Politics

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton for California Governor

Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Steve Hilton, a Fox News host and former British government official, in Californias upcoming gubernatorial race. Announcing his endorsement on Truth Social, Trump expressed...

Iran-US Ceasefire Talks: Pakistan Brokers "Islamabad Accord" to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan is playing a central role in high-stakes diplomatic efforts to end hostilities between Iran and the United States, with a proposed peace framework now on the table that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz...

Kim Jong Un's Daughter Emerges as North Korea's Likely Successor, South Korean Intelligence Says

South Koreas National Intelligence Service (NIS) has concluded that Kim Jong Uns teenage daughter, believed to be around 13 years old and named Ju Ae, is being actively positioned as the next leader of North Korea. Unlike...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...