FxWirePro: Unwise to blow out of proportion in bullish polish zloty - EUR/PLN diagonal debit call spread to tackle EU’s political risks on Poland

Oct 11, 2017 12:30 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We have now turned modestly constructive on the Polish Zloty, given the strong data momentum.The central banks dovish stance is unhelpful, but data may challenge it over coming months. Short-term valuations look cheap,...

FxWirePro: WTI crude spikes coupled by both leading and lagging oscillators, major trend wedged in symmetric triangle – Uphold short hedge snapping rallies

Oct 11, 2017 12:27 pm UTC| Technicals Insights & Views

Although WTI crude prices have plummeted recent upswings especially in European trading sessions, after rejecting below stiff resistance level at 51.22, we uphold our gutsy but momentary bullish stances. Bulls have...

FxWirePro: Brent futures soar to resume bullish streaks, what causes flip in crude forecasts – Open Arbitrage via box spreads

Oct 11, 2017 11:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We raise 4Q17 oil price forecasts by 4.50/bbl on Brent and $1/bbl on WTI to reflect the tighter balances now forecast, to $54.50 and $50.00/bbl, respectively. Similarly, for 2018 we raise Brent to $47/bbl, and WTI to...

FxWirePro: Turkish lira IVs highest among EMFX – Bid USD/TRY one touch knock-ins with striking risk/reward

Oct 11, 2017 10:48 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The push and pull of offsetting factors that had nudged us towards a more balanced view on vol were on full display this week. EM gamma spiked sharply as the shakeout in dollar shorts played out most violently in...

FxWirePro: Escalate diplomatic rigidities and mitigate negative carry to short TRY – RVs to smartly positioned

Oct 11, 2017 09:48 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Escalating diplomatic tensions. Following the diplomatic row between the US and Turkey, we entered a short lira position. To mitigate negative carry, the preferred structure is also short in TRYRUB. Go short TRY on...

FxWirePro: Commodity price outlook propels AUD/USD projections but China still a hindrance

Oct 11, 2017 09:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Revising up RBA forecasts and in turn revise and AUDUSD projections on a brighter commodity price outlook and monetary policy stability in 2018. We still expect AUDUSD to decline modestly over the year ahead. However,...

FxWirePro: Hedge AUD/USD risks via Theta short/Vega longs in Reverse Put Spreads to sync with bullish/bearish scenarios and OTC indications

Oct 11, 2017 07:05 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The bearish AUDUSD scenario below 0.75 if: 1) The unemployment rate moves back towards 6%, forcing the RBA to respond more aggressively to weak inflation; 2) The Fed responds to firm labor market outcomes and...