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Will Puerto Ricans return home after Hurricane María?

Nov 18, 2017 14:56 pm UTC| Insights & Views Nature

Even before this years devastating hurricane season, the team of demographers I work with at Penn State and the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics had predicted that the population of Puerto Rico would decline over the...

FxWirePro: Combinations of call option and duration trades to participate in fragile TRY

Nov 17, 2017 12:41 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The weakness in Turkish assets accelerated over the past week. The lira has weakened by around 2% against the US dollar since the start of November, underperforming other EM currencies (refer above chart). The...

FxWirePro: Snippets of EMFX and outright FX trades

Nov 17, 2017 11:40 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows...

FxWirePro: Snippets of EMFX and outright FX trades

Nov 17, 2017 11:40 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

FxWirePro: Shifting crude sentiments in H2’2017 - Brent 25-delta butterfly depicts rebalancing volatility smile

Nov 17, 2017 11:05 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Crude oil markets are growing nervous, days before OPEC is due to meet in Vienna on 30 November. Front-month prices on ICE Brent are currently retracing around $61.50, down $3 from the November highs and putting a pause to...

FxWirePro: Two EMFX options trades blessing in disguise

Nov 17, 2017 10:23 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In this write-up, we emphasize on ZAR short vs a 50:50 USD:EUR basket and shorting EURHUF through a 6m seagull: In EM, ZAR kept showing weakness constantly against both dollar and the euro since last March 2017,...

FxWirePro: Implications of Fed and RBA’s actions on swap yields and AUD/USD – Bid bearish neutral RRs and shrinking IVs in PRBS to hedge FX risks

Nov 17, 2017 07:21 am UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks Insights & Views

We look for AUDUSD to finish the year around 0.76, so long as markets maintain a very high probability of a Fed interest rate rise in December along with a neutral RBA outlook deep into 2018 and commodity prices remain...

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Economy

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs

Indias services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 14 months during March, as the ongoing Middle East conflict weighed on domestic demand and cost pressures intensified sharply, according to the latest HSBC India...

Politics

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton for California Governor

Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Steve Hilton, a Fox News host and former British government official, in Californias upcoming gubernatorial race. Announcing his endorsement on Truth Social, Trump expressed...

Iran-US Ceasefire Talks: Pakistan Brokers "Islamabad Accord" to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan is playing a central role in high-stakes diplomatic efforts to end hostilities between Iran and the United States, with a proposed peace framework now on the table that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz...

Kim Jong Un's Daughter Emerges as North Korea's Likely Successor, South Korean Intelligence Says

South Koreas National Intelligence Service (NIS) has concluded that Kim Jong Uns teenage daughter, believed to be around 13 years old and named Ju Ae, is being actively positioned as the next leader of North Korea. Unlike...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...