Outlook for EUR/SEK

Apr 28, 2015 08:51 am UTC| Commentary

Fundamentals, valuation and the relative growth outlook unambiguously support the downside in EUR/SEK. However, the Riksbank, to the extent that it is credible, has closed that door for now.The Riksbank may not have a...

BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold

Apr 28, 2015 07:46 am UTC| Commentary

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) will hold its regular meeting on 29 April. Markets appear to be pricing in a 25bps rate cut to 1.50% at this meeting. This follows the dovish statement by the BoTs Director of Macroeconomic...

Japan’s small business confidence suggests recovery will remain sluggish

Apr 28, 2015 05:34 am UTC| Commentary

Japans small business confidence weakened in April and remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector.The headline index of business conditions in todays Shoko Chukin survey dropped from 49.8 in...

Japan's fiscal balance improving as the economy improves

Apr 28, 2015 05:32 am UTC| Commentary

The Japans fiscal balance has improved significantly from -8.9% of GDP in Q2 2012 to -4.7% in Q4 2014. This primarily reflects an increase in tax revenue driven by the recovering economy.Any austerity policies such as tax...

Italy very likely to move out of recession in Q1

Apr 28, 2015 05:31 am UTC| Commentary

The Italian recovery is materializing and Q1 GDP growth should reach 0.2% qoq (marginally lower than our 0.3% expected in March), turning positive only for the second time since the spring of 2011. This development will...

Germany continues to shine in Q1, but structural factors to weigh on the outlook

Apr 28, 2015 05:28 am UTC| Commentary

Continuing the impressive performance over the winter, Societe Generale revises up German growth in Q1 to 0.7% qoq (from 0.5%), the same as in Q414. Household consumption is expected to remain robust, rising 0.8% qoq in...

UK growth to fall from 0.6% to 0.5% qoq in Q1

Apr 28, 2015 05:26 am UTC| Commentary

The first estimate is based on the output components - services, industry (largely manufacturing), and construction of GDP. Despite the slight disappointment of the March data, retail sales grew by 0.9% qoq for Q1 as a...