Brazil, a negative outlook means the clock has started to tick

Jul 29, 2015 03:24 am UTC| Commentary

SP changed Brazils rating (BBB-) outlook to negative, given the execution risks of the policy changes in place. Further deterioration of the political landscape is expected to only trigger this move in H1 16, so this...

UK: MPC may end up raising rates by more than expected

Jul 29, 2015 01:53 am UTC| Commentary

The market expects the UK rates to be 1.15% at the end of 2016 and 1.6% at the end of 2017 with a terminal rate of just 1.65% being expected. There is a clear risk that rates rise more than this:1) Around half of the stock...

UK equities: What to do when rates rise

Jul 29, 2015 01:38 am UTC| Commentary

The market is pricing in a 80% probability of the first rate hike by February 2016 and a 30% probability by November 2015. The rates will rise in February, but sees a risk of a November rate hike. The probability of a...

RBNZ signals that it intends to move cautiously on interest rates

Jul 28, 2015 23:34 pm UTC| Commentary

This morning Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler delivered a speech titled "Some Thoughts on the Inflation Outlook and Monetary Policy". The speech largely reinforced the message of last weeks OCR review statement, which...

FOMC preview: Fed to keep September hike in play

Jul 28, 2015 23:02 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at this weeks FOMC meeting, which concludes tomorrow. However, we would see a FOMC statement asserting that economic activity has continued to expand and that underutilization...

FOMC meeting tonight, forward guidance in the spotlight

Jul 28, 2015 22:23 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

For the FOMC tonight, its all about forward guidance. At Yellens congressional testimony two weeks ago, the Fed Chair neither ruled out a September hike, nor signalled September was a done deal. The non-committal message...

Reduction of Brazil's fiscal targets and the change in Congress incentives

Jul 28, 2015 21:56 pm UTC| Commentary

Back in February, it was believed that the government would fail to meet the fiscal targets for this and the next two years, and that the very fragmented Congress, coupled with a weak president and supporting party (PT),...