Improving EA data unlikely to deter ECB from further easing
Nov 08, 2015 21:40 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks
The EUR underperformed last week as a plethora of US data, including last Fridays employment report and recent Fed speak, increased market expectations for a December Fed rate hike. Furthermore, more policy accommodation...
FOMC to begin the monetary normalization process
Nov 08, 2015 21:29 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks
The USD is poised to resume its upward trend as markets continue re-pricing further hikes for the Fed for 2016. Although the probability of a December liftoff is very high (90%), Fed Funds implied probability of increasing...
BoE growth and inflation downgrades push out expectation of MPC rate hike
Nov 06, 2015 18:13 pm UTC| Commentary
In contrast to recent Fed pronouncements, the "Super Thursday" output from the MPC, in particular the November Inflation Report, struck a decidedly more dovish tone over the near term with downgrades to Bank staff...
Strong payroll report makes December even more "live"
Nov 06, 2015 16:22 pm UTC| Commentary
Non-farm payrolls increased by 271k in October, well above expectations for a 185k gain. Revisions to the previous two months added 12k to the tally. Private payrolls rose by 268k, also above consensus by a wide margin....
First Fed hike in December due to very strong job report
Nov 06, 2015 16:20 pm UTC| Commentary
Todays labour market report was very strong and, therefore, economists now expect the Fed to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the December meeting. The market now prices close to 85% probability of a hike in December depending...
Strong jobs report to recent highs bolsters economic outlook
Nov 06, 2015 16:00 pm UTC| Commentary
The non-farm payroll report released today showed employment taking huge steps in October and setting recent year highs in nearly every category. The labor market added 271K jobs while unemployment dipped to 5 percent,...
US Job reports all but cements a December liftoff
Nov 06, 2015 15:49 pm UTC| Commentary
Todays figures suggest that the labor market is back on track after a short pause which was probably induced by the Feds excessive focus on international developments following the September FOMC meeting. "We believe that...
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