Rebound in German trade data expected in September

For the September trade data, rebound expected in both exports and imports following the larger than expected declines in August, which were partly affected by holiday effects. The weak dynamics of factory orders and industrial production however puts some downside risk to the forecast. 

While the global trade dynamics continue to deteriorate with headwinds from Asia, German exports are likely to continue benefitting from relatively resilient demand from the rest of the euro area, the UK and the US. Recent data on the destination of exports show some stabilisation in exports to these countries, and even to China, but headwinds are likely to linger for some time. The trade surplus in September is expected to have increased to €23.5bn.