US retail sales likely began Q4 on a high note

Stepped-up spending across a wide variety of business segments probably propelled retail and food services sales 0.5% higher in October - the largest increase in three months. Motor vehicle manufacturers reported that unit purchases improved modestly on the decade high posted in September, clocking in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18.12 million. 

After adjusting for prices and difference seasonal adjustments between the unit volume and value series, auto dealership revenues likely climbed by 0.1% to a record $94.8 billion during the reference period - 7.4% above the level recorded 12 months earlier. Excluding the uptick in auto purchases, retail sales are expected to have rebounded by 0.6%, more than offsetting the 0.4% contraction posted over the August-September. Further adjusting for anticipated increases in building materials (0.7%) and gasoline service-station (0.8%) outlays, retail control - the portion of the Census Bureau's advance report that is used by government statisticians to estimate nominal goods spending - probably jumped by 0.6%, marking the strongest performance since May. 

"Our projection, if realized, would place control purchases in October a solid 3.1% annualized above the July-September average, following a 4.6% spring-quarter gain", says Societe Generale.