Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: USD/CHF vs. yield divergence

Jul 26, 2017 10:58 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

During our evaluation period beginning 2012, the yield spread between the US 2-year bond and a Swiss equivalent has widened by almost 200 basis points but the exchange rate hasnt followed through as much as it should have...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series: Short-term yield spread vs. EUR/USD

Jul 26, 2017 08:34 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

The chart above shows, how the relationship between EUR/USD and 2-year yield divergence has unfolded since 2012. It is evident that these short rates have been a key influencing factor for the pair as policy divergence...

U.S. Federal Reserve likely to adopt one additional rate hike in December, says Barclays Research

Jul 26, 2017 07:39 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.0-1.25 percent at its July meeting and signal that balance sheet normalization is likely to begin in...

FxWirePro: Currency swap yields on RBNZ and FOMC regime

Jul 26, 2017 07:39 am UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The US 10yr Treasury yields rose from 2.25% to 2.33%, and 2yr yields rose from 1.36% to 1.39%. Fed fund futures yields firmed slightly, pricing the chance of a December rate hike at around 47%. Ahead of todays FOMCs...

FxWirePro: Anchoring CNB hiking hopes, advancing forecasts and valuations stimulate EUR/CZK

Jul 25, 2017 11:24 am UTC| Central Banks Economy Insights & Views

On the back of formidable economic data and the improved outlook for both domestic and foreign demand, we have revised our calls on GDP dynamics, the labor market, CNB policy, and the financial markets. We now expect two...

FxWirePro: FOMC unlikely to add much spice to EUR/USD tomorrow, OTC FX to substantiate

Jul 25, 2017 09:35 am UTC| Central Banks

A day ahead at a glance EURUSD broke above 1.16 last week, it may be 1.18 come to the next ECB meeting in September. US interest rates rose slightly while the USD consolidated near a one-year low. There was little news to...

FxWirePro: Central banks’ regimes encourage longs in EUR/JPY - Wise to hold via spot and reverse knock-outs

Jul 25, 2017 08:54 am UTC| Central Banks Insights & Views

Long EURJPY is a strategic view on the sequencing of central bank policy. The ECB remains on the cusp of tapering, even if Draghi would not commit this week to a particular meeting for that decision to be taken, over and...