Trump’s 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Could Reshape Asia’s Trade Dynamics

US President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could disrupt Asia’s trade landscape, with Vietnam and South Korea among the most affected, according to ING Group strategists. Vietnam’s steel and aluminum exports to the US accounted for 0.3% of its GDP in 2024, making it highly vulnerable. Its role as a key processor of Chinese semi-finished steel for re-export amplifies the risk.

South Korea, while currently benefiting from a tariff-free quota, has room to negotiate given its exports remain below the set limits. The broader impact of Trump's protectionist stance is expected to hit North Asia hardest, particularly China, Korea, and Vietnam, which rely on US demand and maintain large trade surpluses.

Trump’s push for domestic hi-tech production could further strain Asia’s key exporters of semiconductors, AI, and new energy products, including Japan and Taiwan. In contrast, India and the Philippines face lower risks due to their domestically driven economies, though outsourcing and software services could suffer if tariffs extend to services trade.

Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia face moderate exposure. Malaysia and Thailand benefit from shifts in supply chains in semiconductors and autos, while Indonesia’s EV sector risks setbacks due to potential policy changes. The rising reliance of ASEAN nations on China, which now accounts for 26% of their imports, adds another layer of complexity.

Electronics remain the most vulnerable sector, with Vietnam’s growing role in US electronics exports and Malaysia’s integrated circuits supply chain at risk. However, increased US foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN and India may offer some resilience. Companies like Intel, Apple, and Google are expanding in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, signaling potential long-term benefits despite immediate challenges.