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Thailand Q2 GDP cheers market expectations; BoT seen to hike benchmark interest rate in November: ANZ Research

Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of this year cheered market participants; at 4.6 percent y/y (1 percent q/q sa), Q2 2018 GDP growth came in only marginally short of ANZ Research’s estimate.

The Q1 2018 number was also revised upward to 4.9 percent y/y (2.1 percent q/q sa) from 4.8 percent y/y previously. The breadth of growth remains impressive, with private consumption, investment, and exports improving over their performance in the previous quarter.

Similar to the previous quarter, the breadth of growth remains impressive. Private consumption increased by 4.5 percent y/y, the strongest pace since Q1 2013. Investment and exports also strengthened to 3.6 percent y/y and 6.4 percent y/y respectively, from 3.4 percent and 6.0 percent respectively in the previous quarter. Government consumption slowed marginally.

Within overall investment, private activity increased by 3.2 percent y/y, slightly faster than in the previous quarter. The on-going improvement in private investment reflects a combination of improving capacity utilisation and a ‘crowding in’ of the private sector by public infrastructure spending. Public investment increased by 4.9 percent y/y, again an improvement over the 4 percent y/y growth recorded in Q1.

"The H1 2018 GDP outturn of 4.8 percent y/y is impressive. Viewed in conjunction with the fact that inflation has now settled in the BoT’s target range of 1-4 percent, the conditions for policy normalisation are falling in place. We continue to expect a 25 basis points increase in November 2018," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.

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