Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Moody's trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate finished at 2.7% in October, up from 2.6% in September. The latest reading came in slightly above the rating agency's year-ago prediction of 2.4%.
"The energy sector remains the most troubled, accounting for almost a quarter of the 79 defaults so far this year," said Sharon Ou, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer of Moody's Credit Policy Research. "The most recent energy defaults include EXCO Resources Inc. and Warren Resources Inc., both of which completed distressed exchanges in October."
Among US speculative-grade issuers, the default rate rose to 2.8% in October from 2.7% in September. In Europe, the comparable rate increased to 2.4% from 2.1%.
Moody's default rate forecasting model now predicts that the global default rate will end 2015 at 3.0% before rising gradually to 3.4% by October 2016. Moody's expects default rates to be highest in the Metals& Mining sector in the US, followed by Oil & Gas.
"The credit market has seen some volatility recently, reflecting investors' concerns about the impact of a potential Fed interest rate hike on the global economy in addition to ongoing commodity price deflation," added Ou. If realized, the rate will nevertheless remain below the historical average of 4.2%, given the general stable credit trends and moderate refinancing risk among Moody's-rated speculative-grade issuers.
Moody's Monthly Default Report includes speculative-grade default statistics by region and industry, as well as year-ago rates and year-ahead forecasts. It also provides recent rating transition data and default rates among Moody's-rated loan issuers.
