Japan’s Upper House Election Threatens Ishiba’s Grip Amid Inflation and Immigration Concerns

Japanese voters cast their ballots on Sunday in a closely contested upper house election that could undermine Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. Rising inflation and growing immigration worries are fueling support for opposition parties, threatening the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito’s hold on power.

Polling stations closed at 8 p.m. local time, with media projections expected based on exit polls. Opinion surveys suggest the LDP-Komeito coalition may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat chamber, where half the seats are contested. Right-wing parties like Sanseito are gaining momentum with nationalist slogans such as “Japanese-first,” resonating particularly with younger voters.

Early voting surged, with NHK reporting that one-fifth of voters cast ballots before election day—an indicator of potentially higher turnout, which analysts say could be unfavorable for Ishiba’s administration.

The election outcome carries significant economic implications. A poor showing could shake investor confidence in the world’s fourth-largest economy and jeopardize trade negotiations with the U.S. Japan faces an August 1 deadline to reach a trade agreement or risk tariffs on key exports.

Analysts say Ishiba may face pressure to step down or form new alliances through policy concessions. Opposition parties are pushing for aggressive tax cuts and social spending to combat inflation, including skyrocketing rice prices. However, the LDP has urged fiscal discipline, warning against expansive welfare programs.

Ishiba’s government already lost its lower house majority in October—its worst performance in 15 years—leaving it exposed to no-confidence motions. Voter frustration is growing. “The LDP hasn’t solved anything,” said Kaoru Kawai, a Tokyo novelist who voted for the opposition.

This election could mark a pivotal shift in Japan’s political landscape.